mkt ahead...nifty 11th apr 2011...

nifty hit the falling tline and an imp resistance to its pullback at 5945.

as was said repeatedly it will be freshly bullish only above 5950 or 6000.

after touching 5950 profit booking brought it down to 5822 and closed at 5842.

the weekly candle forms a gravestone like doji with open and close at 5842 and a longish upper shadow. which signifies nifty may be near a short term reversal point to its uptrend. early last month i had given time till second week of april for the pullback from lows of 5200 and this week we have hit the resistance as well as time frame for pullback so lets see. 

as a trading strategy one can short lightly with 5950 as sl for near term if it closes few points below 5800.

follow-up on commodities

Gold:
http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2010/11/very-long-term-chart-of-gold.html

final leg of primary wave three of  cyclical V is under completion near $1460-1500/ounce. after which  fourth down till 1200 and if bigger then upto 1000 and final fifth up to 1800-1850 in the very long term remain.

long term target of $1452/1462 per ounce on international trade completed. movement till 1485 etc cannot be ruled out there is no sign of profit booking yet. very long term tgt 1586 and thereafter 1800-1850 still in place after a good amount of correction.

intermediate term tgt on mcx gold(cmp 21412 high 21459) still near Rs.22000/10gms, short to medium term tgts as given in reply in comments section 21460 above which 21800/21900. support below 20400.

my very long term tgt on mcx gold is Rs.27000/10gms, before that a correction to 18000 and if bigger one the to Rs.15000/10gms as per wave theory.

Silver:
silver continues strongly trending up.

on mcx silver(cmp 60483 high 60888) my tgt was 60000(not given here) but since it has crossed that, the next tgt could be about 63000, which is not far, with support at 56000.

Crudeoil:
http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2011/02/mkt-aheadcrudeoil.html

wti crude oil long term tgts $105/110/112/bbl completed in style. tgt of 120 remains. support near 96.50.

if tgt 120 is completed and wti crude stays above 122-123 then tgt to be revised upwards to $130/bbl for long term.

on mcx crudeoil(cmp5030 high 5098) my short to medium term tgt of 4940 and 5100 and support below 4400 as given on twitter and this blog is completed in style, still no sign of profit booking, if wti crude goes to 120 etc then mcx crude will also go to much higher lvls, current support below 4600.

mkt ahead...another major tgt on crude achieved...08th apr 2011...

in yesterday's trade international crude oil(wti) achieved my 2nd major(long term) target of $110-112/bbl. more later.

mkt ahead...commodities 07th apr 2011...

one of the major long term tgts of mine on gold was $1452/1462 per ounce which was successfully completed on yesterday.

would post an update on some commodities outlook in coming days.

mkt ahead...nifty 04th april 2011...

well the nifty has hit the upper end of the rising trend channel. some sort of reaction may be expected from 5900-5950 range, trade cautiously on longs with positional stoplosses.

it was a sideways 'inside day' trading on last friday. resis to brkout 5875 sl on downside 5778 in the immediate near term on cl basis.

all the sectors showing just pullbacks from their previous medium to intermediate term bearish downtrend. except the IT sector which had undergone just a profit booking and is still continuing its bullish upmove.

the nifty50 p/e graph:

by using the valuations on current earnings of nifty50 stocks,

the intermediate term supports shown by the thin blue horizontal lines comes to about 5270/5190 and then near 4850 on the nifty.

nifty presently around 22 p/e which had offered large resistance to upmoves as well as pullbacks in downtrends on many many earlier ocassions.
the intermediate term resistance zone as shown by the gray rectangle that offered resistance between year 2009-2010 comes to 6050 and above lvls.

previous nifty forecasted movement and tgt lvls till now(and afterward)...

mkt ahead...nifty 20th mar 2011...

after crossing 5500, each day the nifty is rising without any halt and buying seen in select large and mid cap stocks, and yet no all round buying in the mkt. right now it has approached very crucial lvls from where either it can turn down on profit booking or breakout on longer term charts.

pls refer to my posts 10th feb earlier and later ones. i had clearly stated that any (fresh) bullishness in nifty will come above 5900, bottom will be near 5200 and on bounce exit for investors and trading long for short to medium term positional players upto 5550 and 5800 lvls for a better price. how many of the readers believed in what i had said?

nifty has followed the same path as was forecasted and reached to 5800 today.

referring to the above chart it is seen 5800 and 5900(current week falling tline resistance near 5950 looks difficult to cross)  are strong resistances to this pullback rally and above 5900-5950 range only if it stays consistently and for a longer time period, then a change of view of sell on rally to buy on dips may take place, but as of now i still tend to stick and maintain my views on the mkt.

at any point if it looks like the longer term trend is changing to bullish or an attractive mkt to buy is emerging then i would update it here.

mkt ahead...nifty 29th mar 2011...

the given nifty spot chart is self explanatory.

i had given a hint in last post that one can go long/hold long above 5490-5500 closing for about 200+ point upmove.

but nifty was extremely bullish on last friday and opened above 5500 lvl, stayed up and nearly hit the above tgt of 5664.

large net cash buying by fiis can be seen on last friday.

earlier the nifty had already broken above the falling short term trend channel as shown which had upper tgt 5664. infact in just a couple of trading sessions atleast 3 or more important brkouts have occured. now staying above previous high of 5600 it has the potential to go toward medium term resistance of 5800.  if the bullishness remains and nifty sustains higher lvls then 8-10% move in midcaps and 5-8% in large caps cannot be ruled out.

but there are strong resistances like 200dsma at 5688 and 100dsma currently near 5750. the resistance zone is also shown on the chart. as such one should be careful here on the positional long trades and book profits/exit on any sign of weakness or reversal from this zone.

mkt ahead...nifty 25th mar 2011...

so after giving a scary downmove on unexpected and unfortunate japanese calamity, nifty showed resilience and keenness to stay afloat and maybe head a bit higher. but as pointed out many times, it is an exit on rally kind of market for intermediate and long term investors to get a better price on the rise.

i had mentioned downmove till 11th march but the quake/tsunami effect had made mkt low 2 days after that. i had also mentioned it may stay buoyant till 2nd week of april but its more like a sideways movement and needs to go over the resistance of 5562-5600 zone.

but again nifty has started rising in the last couple of sessions. but a more positive bias may develop if today the nifty can manage to close above 5490-5500, then for the next one or two weeks perspective longs may be held or initiated with 5400 as support and a deep positional stop loss of about 5340.

a 150-200 point move is possible above 5500 if the resistances are crossed.

mkt ahead...nifty view 09th mar 2011..

we are witnessing a rangebound but sharp intraday movement of nifty.

on daily charts yesterday the 5492-5525 gap was filled. i expect the eod short term sideways-down movement to continue until this friday, after which it might begin to rise.

again repeating, nifty has to close and stay above the 5562-5600 zone to move upwards.

the medium term pullback/buoyancy in nifty iam expecting to remain upto the second week of april 2011, toward the earlier mentioned tgt lvls and at the most the upper trendline channel resistance.

mkt ahead...crude oil(follow up)...

wti crude first tgt given 105 done, heading up to next given tgts 110/112 and 120(all in $/bbl).

mcx crude oil positional call/view given on twitter 2-3 days ago "mcx crudeoil current series fut closing above 4616-4620, tgt roughly 4940 and 5100, support below 4400 sl 3800 closing basis".

mkt ahead...03rd mar 2011...

i have been maintaining view that we will have pullbacks upto 5550 and 5800 and intermediate to long term investors should use this opportunity to exit their delivery holdings at a much better price at those lvls.

accordingly we had movement till 5550 and more upto 5600 in short term and need consistent closings above those so nifty can head upto that channel upper resistance near 5800 as shown in above spot nifty chart.

dii fii net cash figures:

in the futures segment looks like net short covering in nifty futures of about 2500 contracts(net buy Rs.1104 crores) and in stock futures of about 5000(net buy Rs.472 crores) contracts by the fii's in yday's trading session. put writing at 5400 and 5500 strikes and call option buying of 5700 and 5800 strikes is also seen.

so the combined cash buying by both dii's and largely by fiii's coupled with short covering saw nifty suddenly gaining about 3.5% in yesterday's trading session.

mkt ahead...crudeoil...

long time back i had maintained that the rally in international(wti, nymex etc) crude was just a pullback of previous fall from $150/bbl lvls.

http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2011/02/mkt-aheadrevisiting-my-views-on-crude.html

but the sudden upmove of last many days on the charts on the back of global events suggests a fresh bullishness might be there in crude and might remain at elevated lvls with slight profit bookings in between, as such the tgt $105-$110(112)/bbl now being revised upward to $120/bbl (with a support near $85/bbl) in intermediate term till further update on this.

mkt ahead...25th feb 2011...

it was said nifty has entered into bearish intermediate cycle and likely to move toward 4800 in medium to intermediate term and to exit delivery positions on pullback to 5500 and 5800.

the 5550-5600 bounce is done, but a larger pullback after consolidation near 5400 was expected after budget. but yday's sudden selling broke the nifty below imp 5380 lvl again, as such it might again test the uptrend channel lower side. at this point it is not very clear at what lvl it will find strong buying support.

therefore long positions should not be initiated unless it shows a short term bullishness on eod charts.

due to volatility and sudden swings, intraday trading should best be avoided unless one is very quick and maintains strict stoplosses and carries small positions.