mkt ahead...03rd mar 2011...

i have been maintaining view that we will have pullbacks upto 5550 and 5800 and intermediate to long term investors should use this opportunity to exit their delivery holdings at a much better price at those lvls.

accordingly we had movement till 5550 and more upto 5600 in short term and need consistent closings above those so nifty can head upto that channel upper resistance near 5800 as shown in above spot nifty chart.

dii fii net cash figures:

in the futures segment looks like net short covering in nifty futures of about 2500 contracts(net buy Rs.1104 crores) and in stock futures of about 5000(net buy Rs.472 crores) contracts by the fii's in yday's trading session. put writing at 5400 and 5500 strikes and call option buying of 5700 and 5800 strikes is also seen.

so the combined cash buying by both dii's and largely by fiii's coupled with short covering saw nifty suddenly gaining about 3.5% in yesterday's trading session.

mkt ahead...crudeoil...

long time back i had maintained that the rally in international(wti, nymex etc) crude was just a pullback of previous fall from $150/bbl lvls.

http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2011/02/mkt-aheadrevisiting-my-views-on-crude.html

but the sudden upmove of last many days on the charts on the back of global events suggests a fresh bullishness might be there in crude and might remain at elevated lvls with slight profit bookings in between, as such the tgt $105-$110(112)/bbl now being revised upward to $120/bbl (with a support near $85/bbl) in intermediate term till further update on this.

mkt ahead...25th feb 2011...

it was said nifty has entered into bearish intermediate cycle and likely to move toward 4800 in medium to intermediate term and to exit delivery positions on pullback to 5500 and 5800.

the 5550-5600 bounce is done, but a larger pullback after consolidation near 5400 was expected after budget. but yday's sudden selling broke the nifty below imp 5380 lvl again, as such it might again test the uptrend channel lower side. at this point it is not very clear at what lvl it will find strong buying support.

therefore long positions should not be initiated unless it shows a short term bullishness on eod charts.

due to volatility and sudden swings, intraday trading should best be avoided unless one is very quick and maintains strict stoplosses and carries small positions.

mkt ahead...revisiting my views on crude...

posted again on 5th dec 2010 and staying firm on my long term views on international crude price likely movement and tgts which has been always very very accurate.

here it goes for those who missed reading(http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2010/12/follow-up-on-my-crude-long-term-tgts.html):
"follow-up on my crude long term tgts...


on stock market forums readers may be aware of the accuracy of my outlook on crude.

2.5-3 yrs ago on chats and discussion forum/s i had given major tgt 100 and after crossing that straightaway major long term tgt of 150 and no more when even most of the big international fund houses and brokerages and others were predicting 200+ dollars per bbl. accordingly we had reaction from near 148. after which my tgts on downside was 100 initially. on breaking 100 the tgt was revised to fresh one at 70 and when that was also reached i gave a final bottom for crude at 34(some people interested in crude futures and followed the technical forum had actually covered their shorts there). crude bottomed near 35 and then started its pullback.

this year too(early 2010) elsewhere on the blog my major tgts were 90 and 105-110 and 70 as a good support lvl. i had also said so far it was only a pullback of the big downmove that we had in the second half of year 2008.

we've seen somewhere just near/below crude taking support and then slowly moving up.

we now have a breakout on the upperside on crude after almost seven months. my tgt of 90 is done and near to 92 some minor profit booking might be possible. if it rallies up and crosses 110 in intermediate to long term then a relook at revising the long term tgts again will have to be done."

accordingly crude reacted from 92.5-93 and underwent minor correction (85) as given in my views.

now crude has crossed above 93 and moving up whatever maybe the news, it was projected long time back by me, chances are probably the long term tgts could be achieved if this bullishness continues in coming months.
(views based on technicals and ew theory)

mkt ahead...21st feb 2011...

nifty pulled back above 5550 and moved to 5600 but a swift slide in second half on friday brought it toward 5450 lvl.

at the moment seems like quick profit booking. if 5375 is held on closing basis then it can remain range bound for some days and then again may try to move toward 5600 odd lvls.

5800 and above it faces resistance again on its upmove in medium term.

the follow up on my earlier views on nifty is as given in chart below:

mkt ahead...14th feb 2011...

5350 odd was broken and nifty closed below it, confirming medium to intermediate term bearishness. however on the back of  bounce last trading session it might still continue as a dead cat bounce till 100 points more in near term.

if after that nifty is able to sustain above 5415-5420, then can take it near 5550 till budget .  if some positive news is there then the pullback could continue upto 5850 etc.

market ahead...10th feb 2011...

lots of damage done on the charts and they have turned very bearish perhaps a bearish phase is getting started although nifty is trading near trendchannel support 5200 now(should not consistently close below 5150 to prevent continued downmove toward 4700-4800).

any bullishness on charts presently will be above 5900 which is far away.

short to medium term investors can use any such bounce from lower lvls to trade long, if any close above 5373/5389 this friday, bias will be positive.

strategy/outlook for intermediate(6 months to 1 year) and long term(1 year or more) investors use any pullback over next 3-6 weeks to exit all delivery positions at better prices. use pullback which is possible initially to 5550 and then upto 5850 etc.  if during any such pullback over 2 months it trades above say 5900 then do not exit.
 
if any bullishness/buying opportunity comes at any time or lvls for such delivery positions/investors then it will be updated here.

***these are my views only, pls read the disclaimer above.

mkt ahead...09th feb 2011...

clearly nifty has entered bearish intermediate cycle. no good buying has taken place and selling has still not subsided. the 5350-5400 crucial support zone was broken on eod charts and nifty just managed to close above 5300 where some small supports do exist. but a lot of damage seen on charts which can possibly make the slide continue toward 5200 in current downmove.

if the reader can recall, many days ago i had observed that if nifty starts trading below the rising trendchannel and also below 5690, then it will be approaching its lower end at somewhere near 5200 from where a pullback can occur.

positive news is right now it is in oversold territory and so good chance of that bounce happening in a couple of days, which might be used by medium to long term players to further sell again or exit.

in next couple of days closing above 5390/5400 will be better for upward movement of the nifty. if the resistance of 5562(which was given as sl for positional short players) is somehow taken out, then movement till 5750-5800 can take place. if such exit at higher lvl again takes place without showing bullishness on charts, then there is a danger of testing 4700-4800 zone over the medium to intermediate term, which is a very important support zone for maintaining the long term tgts on upside.

existing positional traders who were short can think of booking/covering shorts near to 5200 if that lvl comes, and suggested to keep tsl near 5450 with sl 5562.

posting again the rising trendchannel chart of nifty for the benefit of the blog reader:

mkt ahead...nifty 03rd feb 2011...

as written in so many posts nifty finally reached almost near our much expected 5350-5400 lvl. there was no support by mutual funds or fiis near the 5700-5800 where some people might have wrongly advised others to invest thus making them further lose money in the 300-400 points downslide.

so will the 5350-5400 will be the bottom? right now on daily charts it is oversold and trading below 200dsma.  it is important to understand that at the moment it is only an crucial 'speculated support', any such bottom can be confirmed only sometimes later when some upward bias sets up for short term. it is most important also that 4750-4800 is below which the long term charts(and hence the very long term investors) turn bearish. so as long as that is held our long term tgts, though delayed, would be in place. positive news is the nifty50 share earnings have been continuously upgraded till now. and the nifty50  is mid-way near 20 times earnings.

nifty trading strategy:

intraday players can keep sl 5400 spot and trade long for 5465/5538, if 5400 breaks short for 5388/5350.

existing positional short nifty players can keep a sl of 5562 spot and ride some more downside if nifty slips below 5400, reverse position to go long above 5562 closing basis above which trend can change to short term bullish with short term tgt 5800.

as given before also 5850-5900 remains a strong resistance to the upside.

mkt ahead...28th jan 2011...

nifty spot is getting near to our downtrend sloping channel lower lvl of about 5505 which may act as temporary support, the downside as earlier mentioned is still bearish atleast till 5350-5400 since the resistance at 5900 was not crossed(refer previous posts).

follow up on intraday trading lvls...

three trades were possible last week on our accurate intraday to near term trading lvls given on 18th jan 2011 morning, as shown in the above nifty chart.

mkt ahead...18th jan 2011...

nifty spot(for traders)

short to medium term:
resistance lvls: 5880/5945/6140
support lvls   : 5350-5400/5530

near term:
resistance: 5834/5874
support: 5620/5560

for today:
resistance: 5735
support: 5620/5580

medium term view: if the nifty fails to go and sustain above 5900, then a probable movement till 5350-5400 would be there where there may be good chances of buying support by financial institutions and mutual funds.

mkt ahead...trend channels...14th jan 2011...

if nifty stops following the earlier uptrend channel, a 'possible' down trend channel i have drawn that might come into play if nifty comes down below 5690.

a bounce off it below 5600 if that comes, would confirm nifty to be following it.

supports and resistances as provided by the trend channels lines.

imp note: if the nifty closes above 5750-5760 today, then it also stays out/above of the uptrend trend channel and keeps chances of pullback continuing.

mkt ahead...11th jan 2011...

nifty is again testing upper end of our trendchannel.