mkt ahead 06th jan 2010...

aban very accurately reached our both near term tgts mentioned in previous post (refer day before yday high 1345 and yday's high 1375), :)

a further movement till 1395-1403 may be possible in near term.

much larger upside gets opened up if starts closing consistently above 1448, which will depend on the state of the overall mkt and stock specific profit booking etc.

nifty is reaching imp resis lvls of 5300 etc hence some caution, possibly thursday or friday, but no such bearishness is there currently.

mkt ahead 04th jan 2010...

welcome into the new year 2010!!!

welcome to the new trade timings as well starting 9.00 a.m from today.

after bouncing on last tuesday nifty continued its upward journey and achieved brkout closing above the imp 5182/5183 lvl(refer previous posts).

nifty has also moved to its intraday tgt 5220/5230, it has intraday support near 5160, there is currently no intraday bearishness but if the mkt undergoes intraday profit booking on monday and breaks below 5160 can move down upto 5130/5080.

on positional basis, staying above 5183 nifty has a chance to move initially to 5300/5388, above which in medium to intermediate term can tgt to 5545/5580. short term support 4943.

over intermediate to long term 4538, if held closing basis consistently, then a much larger tgt can be possible(lvl i won't mention right now).

aban could be headed to 1345-1375 if current short term upmove continues.

at any time if investors need to exit the mkt i would mention here or on the other blog http://eyesonthecash.blogspot.com. i have also added a delivery based stocks query box there for investors.

29th dec 2009...

back after a long weekend.

mkt doing its bit to move up towards the 5182 mark. but is that enough. its still in that range 4800-5200 and needs to break above that convincingly.

many resistances are lying up on the upperside like 5250/5300/5545 etc which it will have to overcome. couple of strong closes above 5183 will be better, there is some possibility on the short term daily charts to achieve this.

nifty spot support 4920 sl 4850.

merry christmas and happy new year greetings to all..

nifty view...market ahead...

nifty is currently in near and short term downtrend. it is still weak and personally i feel going forward it may be headed, with some bounces, to near above 4800 lvls if not supported by positive global cues, may form a short term bottom on tuesday, it would be better to play by lvls.

monday intraday resis 5020(would be near term bullish above this till 5130 etc), support 4940.

short term resis 5130, above it would be bullish till 5183.

short term supports 4935-4950. but if broken then below 4930 short term downside would get open till 4810 may get supported near 4830-4850.

mkt ahead 17th dec 2009...

nifty still bearish in near term downtrend, but in intraday nifty bounced off oversold lvls near 5000.

as such its possible to reach 5100/5120-5130 intraday if stays bullish above 5070 for sometime.

supports are 5010, sl 5000. opening may be slightly negative.

the near to short term trend may turn up if nifty spot closes today above 5080.

mkt ahead, nifty eod chart...

nifty spot eod chart with near and short term supports and resistances.

follow up:perfect play, nifty intraday lvls...

this was said yday,
"trading lvls for intraday nifty traders, if nifty crosses intraday and stays above 5118 can tgt upto 5161/5181. support 5088/5080, below which chances of weakening upto 5050/5020."

now pls refer the above charts points m,n and o. nifty couldn't sustain above 5118 and thereafter dropped till 5080 where it bounced but only to break below it and took support on 5050 where it bounced off quite well afterwards(i.e today in intraday).

perfect play!!!:)

mkt ahead 07th dec 2009...

in the last posts it was said that,

"however 4880 was held on closing basis, and in the very near term any bounce nifty may possibly get restricted to 5012/5030. so the near term range is about 4800 to 5030."

"a few closings above 5030 if supported by global mkts, the nifty would be again more bullish to reach the previous high of 5182, if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4880/4860"

however the range 4800-5030 was broken on upperside in the early part of last week, 4860/4880 was held and hence nifty continued and achieved the tgt lvl of 5182.

its now important for nifty to cross and close above 5182 for some days atleast to achieve the short to medium term tgts of 5300/5400/5545 etc. support lvl 4880/4800. below it gets bearish upto 4700/4538.

trading lvls for intraday nifty traders, if nifty crosses intraday and stays above 5118 can tgt upto 5161/5181. support 5088/5080, below which chances of weakening upto 5050/5020.

my gold ew chart...

as per london gold prices.

gold is in correction mode.

rough tgts for the fives could be about $1300/$1540, subject to chnage as per scenario unfolding. downside lvls for internal waves as shown on the chart above.

right now one or two degree's correction may be happening, this is monthly chart the movement therefore would be clearer after sometime.

once wave five is completed, a big correction can come to below $1000 maybe in that range $700-$1000.

pls note that this is as per london gold prices which are on closing spot basis, which is different from nyse or comex gold futures prices.




gold chart all data.




on nyse gold the downside/support lvls are 1100/1070/1030/990.




mcx gold futures with trendline's supports.

testing times!!!, mkt ahead 30th nov 2009...

after a long time the negative correlation between the global equities and the us dollar index gets disturbed, and asian mkts particularly seen correction on dubai debt payment delays in real estate sector giving doubts on economic recovery in that part of the world and indian listed shares of companies having operations in west asia getting a good amount of beating. fii's are continously turning out to be net sellers in cash in large amounts.

technically, i had said mkt was losing momentum and we could get a whipsaw/volatility, and that's what we are seeing. near term positional long traders are already out on break of 5030/5000 and hence got protected from the further 200 point fall.

the imp 4880/4900 lvl was broken but mkt saw recovery by the close of the day above that lvl. 4800 at the moment, from options data, looks as the near term support but after a pullback some more weakness may still be left.

it may be noted that 4550/4350 are very crucial medium to intermediate term support lvls if the nifty is to tgt 5300/5400 and any breaking of those lvls will make it that much more difficult, though not impossible, for nifty to achieve the higher tgts. at the moment iam still optimistic on the higher tgts in the intermediate term.

however 4880 was held on closing basis, and in the very near term any bounce nifty may possibly get restricted to 5012/5030. so the near term range is about 4800 to 5030.

mkt ahead 23rd nov 2009...

lets first have a look again at my nifty p/e chart with the circle marked providing resistance to the upmove(profit booking line).



from the last two posts,

Monday, November 9, 2009:

"to establish a stronger uptrend, the nifty has to move and stay above 4854-4864, if that happens then chances of touching 4937/5030 could be there, since the us dollar index is still supportive of some more of the rally in the global equity mkts continuing."

Monday, November 16, 2009:

"if nifty stays sideways to up for a some more days then a firmer uptrend may get established.

a few closings above 5030 if supported by global mkts, the nifty would be again more bullish to reach the previous high of 5182, if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4880/4860."

nothing more to add, the profit booking/whipsaw did come and got limited above 4880/4860, also the tsl for longs as always was excellent enough to protect the positions.

nifty is losing momemtum but seems moving toward 5182 in the current upmove, once small resistances 5080/5110.50 are crossed, if the global scenario remains stable. thereafter tgts of 5250/5300/5388/5500 etc would be still open as long as the medium to intermediate trend remains up and any profit booking gets limited to 4880, iam not expecting anything more on the upper side beyond that. for monday the tsl for short term positional longs to be raised to 4990 closing basis.

nifty spot eod chart:

nifty needs to remain at least sideways or up, lets say above 4880, for a bullish crossover again of 20 dma and 50 dma, macd already had made a bullish crossover earlier.


fii's been net sellers in cash last couple of trading sessions/days.

16th nov 2009...

4854-4864 was crossed on first day and held thereafter we saw nifty getting to the first tgt, and second tgt 5030 nearly done.

if nifty stays sideways to up for a some more days then a firmer uptrend may get established.

a few closings above 5030 if supported by global mkts, the nifty would be again more bullish to reach the previous high of 5182, if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4880/4860.

for today positional longs can raise the tsl to 4840.

all prices are on closing basis.

mkt ahead 09th nov 2009...

earlier the nifty bounce came off from exactly near 4540 which was sl lvl on range brkout that was on my radar and thankfully not broken on downside and got supported else it would have gone toward 4400 etc. allright, so the near term and near to short term trend are up but still nifty is not out of the woods as the macd and other indicators are still in negative territory. one can have a tsl such as 4740 and 4720 respectively for the longs, since chances of whipsaw are not ruled out.



nifty is still trading below the 20dma which is currently 4931 which may act as resis. to establish a stronger uptrend, the nifty has to move and stay above 4854-4864, if that happens then chances of touching 4937/5030 could be there, since the us dollar index is still supportive of some more of the rally in the global equity mkts continuing.