mkt ahead 29 sep 2009...

another back to back long weekend is over and we are starting afresh to trading the mkts.

european and american mkts closed in the green and asia-pacific mkts also are trading with gains.

nifty short term trend is still up(since 4630) despite small correction last week, short term players can keep a cl sl at 4900. while intermediate longs and medium to intermediate term investors can raise their cl tsl to 4750.

we are in a new series and hopefully nifty might make a new high, tgts given earlier. on any weakness tsl should be followed for protecting the profits.

thanks for participating in the poll, do keep voting as the dow poll is open for another 14 days.

poll: dow macro timeframe chart(ew)...

dow jones chart since the early 1930's. i have marked my preferred supercycle and primary wave counts for projecting the likely direction.


please participate in the poll, given below as well as on the right hand sidebar, to give ur own opinion about what u feel how the movement in the dow jones is likely to be from hereon.

case I: march 2009 lows are final and 2007 high will be taken out.

case II: dow will go below march 2009 lows but get supported on lower trendlines and move up above 2007 high.

case III: dow will go down below march 2009 lows and go down below trendline support.

case IV: dow will go down below march 2009 lows, get supported on/above trendline support, move up but not cross 2007 high.

case V: dow will not go down below march 2009 lows and will not go beyond 2007 high.

poll: dow jones will move as per following...

some charts and graphs...

nifty intraday chart.



composites graph for the overall mkt(incl be and eq and some indices).

mkt ahead 22nd sept 2009...

short term positional longs tsl for today 4844 closing basis, intermediate term nifty tsl for cash portfolio/longs 4670 closing basis.

earlier given nifty tgts 4970/5300, had also suggested booking partial profits in longs above 4900 and rest to be carried with appropriate tsl.


stocks to watch medium term investment:

shipping stocks like abg and bharti, auto ancillaries like amtek, small it education related like aptech, smaller psu banks like andhrabank etc, they may see action with small corrections in between if mkt trend remains up or stable.

my sensex ew chart...

similar nifty ew analysis gives tgt of the upmove(with in between smaller corrections) upto 5142(say 5200).

that may happen during next month if the support tline is not broken on the downside.

sensex long term chart...

sensex long term monthly chart with various imp support lvls as shown on the chart.

some index stock charts...

acc chart, cement sector stocks are moving up now.


hdil chart, brkout from 327, upper resis/tgt 400 but may face intermeditae resis by upper tline as shown above.


ifci had broken out but became sluggish as its getting resisted on the upperside.


reliance brkout and swing chart.

nifty50 p/e touches 22...

p/e touches and moves slightly above 22.01 the bear mkt pullback exit/bull mkt profit booking lvl.

market view: then, now and going forward...

lets rewind a bit...

from intraday ew counts we had concluded the previous short term upmove will get over around 4700 odd followed by a decline to 4580(4570 as support) or so and if not held then only a decline to 4500-4550 where again it will be a buying opportunity for next upmove to 4900 etc which will act as a good resis going forward. a nifty range chart was also put up with clearly marked brkout(4755)/down(4527)lvls. months ago we had projected dollar index to be bottoming in 75-77 range.


what has actually happened...

reaction came in below 4750 followed by downmove getting supported just above 4570, followed by upmove till just below 4900 where it got reacted again, everything just as per expectations. in between a bullish brkout from 4755 also has taken place.
also noteworthy is nifty has already retraced 61.8% of entire downmove from 6357 to 2253 and has closed above it. the us dollar index its there in projected range 75-77 already but still no sign of any reversal taking place, good for the equity mkts.


what to expect...

as said so many times before, nifty is nearing its bear mkt peak/bull mkt profit taking valuations of 22 times eps which comes to around 4900 which remained our tgt for a long time, its nearly done. technically since nifty is on a bullish brkout can go to 4970 or even 5100/5300/5500(i.e., 4700+800) as many are expecting. a touch of euphoria may be setting in.


so what to do?...

those lvls may or may not come immediately. so far, apart from the negative divergences we can see no bearishness either in nifty chart or the US or global indices incl the dollar index etc. but who knows if a reaction can come any time suddenly and sharply then what. some small profit booking can be done in medium to long term investment. the best way is to align with the uptrend and keeping a sl such as just below the intermediate support trendline for longs(including remaining portfolio cash longs), around 4600 cl basis to protect them. current support is seen near 4700 lvl.

icicibank is on a brkout, once it starts trading/closing above 835 can head towards 1000, while hdfc is on the verge of brkout from triangle. in line with mkt many stocks are maintaining the uptrend. need the mkt to be up or atleast stable for the stocks to perform in short to medium term.

(pls read the disclaimer)

09th sept 2009...

the reliance and hdfc stock charts as discussed earlier...

07th sept 2009...

weekly ranged, resis 4755/4970/5300 supports 4618/4527.

very near term trend is up above 4630.

if by chance anyone bought and still holding hdfc,ifci,recltd and mindtree(http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2009/06/nifty-june-24th-2009.html) may keep an eye on nifty upward direction/resistances and book at appropriate turning lvls.

hdfc is consolidating sideways in a triangle. ifci has done a brkout on upperside with tgts/resis 66/72. recltd sl 178 cl basis. mindtree resis 588/614.

mkt opening expected in positive.

nifty charts with supports and resistances...

nifty eod charts, trading in a narrow range.


nifty weekly chart, intermediate trend still intact, upper and lower range limits clearly seen, can be large move if brks out of these.

some interesting and imp stocks to watch...

would be interesting to watch the movements of stocks in coming days, some of which are illustrated below.

RELIANCE:


INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES:


TECH MAHINDRA:


HDIL:


(click images to enlarge them)

brkout in mcx gold(update)...

last time i had mentioned mcx gold would be bullish above 15000 and the tgt could be even 15600 etc.

my mcx gold chart is shown above. gold has broken out of the big ascending triangle few days ago.

the supports, resistances and sl lvls are given on the chart.

as always the chart image has to be clicked for a larger image for viewing the details.