nifty june 24th 2009...

still in short term downtrend.

if closing above 4310 today nifty will brkout from the falling resis tline, thereafter higher highs and higher lows pattern needed to confirm uptrend.

opening bias is positive.

stocks to watch short to medium term on long side ifci, hdfc, recltd, mindtree etc if mkt stays up or breaks out.


lets see how perfectly our supports/resistances again worked:

yahoo chart:


p/e outlook:
on 5th june update i had mentioned about 4.5% upgrade being projected on nifty50 earnings since april end, now further small upgrade takes this figure to about 6.5% over april end. therefore tgts will also get revised upwards.

tuesday 23rd june 2009...

nifty reacted and played almost exactly within our yday's given lvls 4345 and 4227. cool 100 odd points in intraday.

todays lvls 4287/4207/4150, intermediate tline gets broken below 4200(bearish).

will head for the big gap if goes below 4150.

opening bias is negative.

monday 22nd june 2009...

so, nifty opened in green on friday and bounced from the oversold condition.

it may continue to do so but remains in short to medium term downtrend till doesn't close above the falling resis line. today profit booking of yday's short covering move is possible.

the intermediate support tline is at 4182 holding this on closing basis is very imp.

weekly resistance 4518, weekly support 4182.
monday resistance 4345/4375, monday support 4227/4182.

19th june 2009...

nifty spot
accelerating in short term downtrend.

resis(chart) 4270/4335/4376/4432(short term bullish above this falling resis line) support 4155. 10 sma trin suddenly rising in oversold territory.

opening bias: mkt may open in green.

nifty and mkt thoughts 18th june 2009...

short term resistance line(as shown in above chart) should be crossed and closed above to resume short term uptrend.

short term trend is down, yday selling persisted and medium term uptrend broken, medium to int trend is sideways, intermediate trend still up.

so though we are in a bullish structure with higher bottoms and higher tops i still don't think we are yet in the beginning of a new bull mkt yet, mkt should continue its upward journey amid corrections to demonstrate on charts that its in a fresh structural bull run, at present this could be a furious bear mkt rally upto 4800(61.8% or more of fall 6357-2253) etc. whatever may be one's view good money making opportunities should not be missed. ta charts amd mkt indicators give a lot of indications on a day to day and positional basis to trade the index as well as individual stocks.

probable intraday tech lvls to watch are 4254 on downside and 4412 on upperside. yday heavy call writing seen at 4400 and 4600 strikes.

nifty gap didn't hold as ril cracked intraday.

eod chart shows supports as per short and intermediate term for today.

some interesting intraday observations(charts)...

nifty 15min intraday chart:

testing the 4561-4566 gap. fill the gap and bounce(preferred view) or fill and breakdown.

reliance 15min chart:

already tested/filled and then bounced off the gap and closed in green today unlike broader mkts. holding the support trendline too. this stock generally leads the mkt due to its weightage on nifty.

10th june 2009...

exactly what's said is happening, nifty moved up and got resisted near 4650 which it found a good technical resistance, then reacted and got supported on near term supports near 4400 to bounce back.

it was a very good tradeable opportunity for short term and intraday players, while uptrend remains intact for intermediate traders.

fiis again supporting the mkt with huge net cash buying on declines and the tgts remain the same as mentioned earlier. individual stocks and sectors are showing lot of action.

nifty will likely challenge the recent highs if today stays above 4572(falling short term tline resis) and 4587. mkt opening is expected to be positive.

the nifty p/e graph and price chart...

my old nifty p/e graph reposted with some additions:


since last time(april end) have seen some earnings upgrades of about 4.5% being happening for nifty50 stocks.

as said earlier 22-23 times eps is a region where i expect some reaction to come, since its where bear mkt peaks(bear mkt longs exit) and bull mkts intermediate tops have occured(bull mkt profit booking).

that lvl comes to around 4820 and 5040 on nifty, tentative tgts, as per valuations and mkt expectations till further changes happen on this front. while fibonacci 61.8%ret to p/e gives 4761 lvl.


nifty eod price chart:


nifty facing resis below 4600, but it is doing good by maintaining above 4509.40. as long it stays above this or 4500 on closing basis there's chance of moving to the big resis of 4650.

medium to intermediate term supports are as shown on the chart above. near term supports are 4400-4440.

slowly mkt is shifting into overbought though not heavily overbought region. stocks are also going into high valuations. so one must be cautious at higher lvls of the range, while uptrend is still strong and intact, so as long as the support tline is held the dips will be bought by money on the sidelines.

mkt ahead: 02 june 2009...

nifty closed above 4500 global mkts also doing well, support 4100/4000, resis 4650-4700. mkt ranged between these one can buy near supports and sell near range highs, 50% longs are intact since 2600 lvl. global commodities like crude and gold also doing nicely maintaining bullish upmove i guess till the dollar index continues falling and reaches oversold lvls near 75-77.

mkt outlook...

nifty uptrend is still strong and has immediate support in 4050-4100 area. some fiis are booking profits.

below which 3700-3750 looks like a strong support on charts with resis near 4300.

while s&p500(us) and dow jones are sideways but look a bit weaker than nifty and sensex, and they may undergo slight profit booking and might come down towards 8000/850 lvls respectively.

some disconnect i found also in gold($) and domestic mcx gold(Rs.) while international prices look bullish for short term, domestic prices are going sideways with a weakish bias. may be a matter of time before they fall in line.

crude still looks good for maintaining the upmove.

nifty supports and resistance lines...

a simple chart showing medium and intermediate term nifty support and resis lines.

historic manmohan(mon) day!!!...

the euphoria was such that mkt hit all three circuits collectively just within 60 seconds and trading closed for the day. as such volumeswise its almost nothing(3100 cr cash & f&o), no one could buy or sell.

another euphoric 10% or 15% and we would be staring at 4800! which is the 61.8% retracement of entire bear mkt 6357-2253, also the 22-23 times nifty shares eps comes to around 4630-4840 etc.

just 1-2 days ago one was wondering if 3800 was too much, most humbly one cannot argue or predict the mkt correctly at all times the best way if to follow the trend and book profits regularly following discipline.

now i think we should start looking at the valuations, its definitely buy on dips mkt but these lvls are scary for an investor to enter. 3150-3250 is the base now for sometime i guess since it was a brkout zone from a long consolidation.

i guess mainly only the fiis were participants in this rally from 2600 lvls pouring in lot of cash, diis usually were sellers and retailers were completely left out of this fantastic run.

i hope readers of my blog may have benefitted to a great extent in catching a large part of this 2600 lvl onward rally.

18th may 2009...

congestion zone brkout: if it trades above 3717 then a fresh brkout occurs with tgt 3717+183=3900 with some resis near 3800-3820.

various fibo ret lvls above that are also shown on the nifty chart above.

mkt will be enthused by the election results and may give a large opening gap up.

looks like the nifty would go off the roof on jubilant mood and buying. 10% up circuit is 4037 and 15% is at 4223.