nifty supports and resistance lines...

a simple chart showing medium and intermediate term nifty support and resis lines.

historic manmohan(mon) day!!!...

the euphoria was such that mkt hit all three circuits collectively just within 60 seconds and trading closed for the day. as such volumeswise its almost nothing(3100 cr cash & f&o), no one could buy or sell.

another euphoric 10% or 15% and we would be staring at 4800! which is the 61.8% retracement of entire bear mkt 6357-2253, also the 22-23 times nifty shares eps comes to around 4630-4840 etc.

just 1-2 days ago one was wondering if 3800 was too much, most humbly one cannot argue or predict the mkt correctly at all times the best way if to follow the trend and book profits regularly following discipline.

now i think we should start looking at the valuations, its definitely buy on dips mkt but these lvls are scary for an investor to enter. 3150-3250 is the base now for sometime i guess since it was a brkout zone from a long consolidation.

i guess mainly only the fiis were participants in this rally from 2600 lvls pouring in lot of cash, diis usually were sellers and retailers were completely left out of this fantastic run.

i hope readers of my blog may have benefitted to a great extent in catching a large part of this 2600 lvl onward rally.

18th may 2009...

congestion zone brkout: if it trades above 3717 then a fresh brkout occurs with tgt 3717+183=3900 with some resis near 3800-3820.

various fibo ret lvls above that are also shown on the nifty chart above.

mkt will be enthused by the election results and may give a large opening gap up.

looks like the nifty would go off the roof on jubilant mood and buying. 10% up circuit is 4037 and 15% is at 4223.

and the winner is...

ppl's mandate in favor of UPA for second term for a progressive stable govt.

singh is king again, jai ho!!!

:)

mkt next...

positional longs yday were intact as nifty managed to close above our tsl 3589 spot.

tomorrow and monday being imp days and today being last trading day for the week, the mkt may become bit edgy hence one can either book these longs at higher lvls or keep holding with support 3530 with sl below 3496. a trader wanting to initiate fresh position should wait for a decisive brkout/brkdown(refer previous post) from wedge and/or congestion zone.

nifty rising wedge and negative div...

since early april 2009, nifty is moving in a rising wedge pattern(bearish), marked with green oval, with volumes declining and negative divergences appearing on indicators. macd is still below signal but holding the trendline, caution tsl exit 3589 for longs. also again a small congestion marked by blue oval is developing on charts, nifty will brkout from this in a couple of trading sessions and provide direction. one can trade accordingly in the direction of brkout/brkdown.

13th may 2009...

trendline support near 3535 was perfectly held and a nice bounce from there no trader would have missed the rally, it was mainly possible due to big fii buying from the afternoon. even reliance has done another brkout closing. nifty spot tsl now is 3560.

12th may 2009...

(chart courtesy:www.icharts.in)

nifty spot eod chart.

macd again showing bearish crossover after yday's downmove. the difference between this and last time a few days ago is it comes after large negative divergence on macd and rsi etc. such moves in jan 2009 had led to a downtrend.

the factors in favor of uptrend continuation are low volume on decline and holding the trendline support mentioned earlier.

strategy is buy/hold if the eod tline support is held closing basis else exit from longs if closes below it with good volumes.

india general elections 2009- voter's dilemma???

lolz:)

nifty ahead...

profit booking is coming near congestion brkout tgt zone 3662-3738 as well as imp fibo ret lvls 3734-3820 as shown on the nifty chart above. 3800 is a strong resis too since it offered very good support when nifty was falling. not surprising some mkt players and fiis turned small net sellers in cash and f&o on last friday taking some profits off the table. positional longs have a tsl on trendline and congestion brkout support near 3500 which is clearly seen on the chart.

07th may 2009...

as per previously posted nifty chart, the breakout tgt range mentioned is nearly done. the support area is 3480-3517. although nifty suddenly came down in intraday yday due to negative div and profit booking but has not damaged charts much, we will try to book part of the remaining 50% longs. nifty perhaps will still attempt to move toward the imp 3800-3820 resis area in coming days, beyond which at present looks a bit difficult.

a double whammy...

:)

news: h1n1 virus spreads alarmingly outside of mexico and texas, united states caps visa limit to indian s/w ppl and also denies tax sops to co's hiring outside US thereby affecting outsourcing I.T. jobs to countries like india, china etc.

(cartoon source:ab)

bulls on the rampage...

taking cues from overseas mkts, it were the bulls who took charge right from the beginning with a large opening gap and kept mkt firm throughout the day.

reason? huge cash buying to the tune of 1400 cr(cash prov.) and 1000 cr in f&o segment by the fiis.

diis were infact net sellers in cash.

this also caused another breakout from congestion pattern on upper side on the nifty eod price charts, the tentative tgts and sl's etc is as shown on the chart above.

mkt ahead...

just as it was said that "profit booking is due", we got a drop down on 28th april 2009 and for the first time triggering the intermediate term trailing profit stop(tsl) on closing basis, therefore as a good trading discipline 50% of the longs were to be covered/profit booked. pls remember the positions are supposed to be long from 2600 lvls, enough hint was given here about the same.

strategy is now the rest 50% are to be held with sl of 3296 and any upsides upto 3734-3800(strong resis) can be used for profit booking in stocks and nifty fut.

fiis are still buying in cash and f&o so as of now there's not much of panic or bearishness as such.

mkt is still ranged, but now we can see some negative div appearing on s&p500(us) and dow jones charts which could lead to some profit booking in those mkts although trending upward, that may possibly impact our mkt also.

since nifty is ranged a sort of short to medium term congestion type pattern is emerging on eod charts waiting for direction for break out or breakdown.