mkt next...

positional longs yday were intact as nifty managed to close above our tsl 3589 spot.

tomorrow and monday being imp days and today being last trading day for the week, the mkt may become bit edgy hence one can either book these longs at higher lvls or keep holding with support 3530 with sl below 3496. a trader wanting to initiate fresh position should wait for a decisive brkout/brkdown(refer previous post) from wedge and/or congestion zone.

nifty rising wedge and negative div...

since early april 2009, nifty is moving in a rising wedge pattern(bearish), marked with green oval, with volumes declining and negative divergences appearing on indicators. macd is still below signal but holding the trendline, caution tsl exit 3589 for longs. also again a small congestion marked by blue oval is developing on charts, nifty will brkout from this in a couple of trading sessions and provide direction. one can trade accordingly in the direction of brkout/brkdown.

13th may 2009...

trendline support near 3535 was perfectly held and a nice bounce from there no trader would have missed the rally, it was mainly possible due to big fii buying from the afternoon. even reliance has done another brkout closing. nifty spot tsl now is 3560.

12th may 2009...

(chart courtesy:www.icharts.in)

nifty spot eod chart.

macd again showing bearish crossover after yday's downmove. the difference between this and last time a few days ago is it comes after large negative divergence on macd and rsi etc. such moves in jan 2009 had led to a downtrend.

the factors in favor of uptrend continuation are low volume on decline and holding the trendline support mentioned earlier.

strategy is buy/hold if the eod tline support is held closing basis else exit from longs if closes below it with good volumes.

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nifty ahead...

profit booking is coming near congestion brkout tgt zone 3662-3738 as well as imp fibo ret lvls 3734-3820 as shown on the nifty chart above. 3800 is a strong resis too since it offered very good support when nifty was falling. not surprising some mkt players and fiis turned small net sellers in cash and f&o on last friday taking some profits off the table. positional longs have a tsl on trendline and congestion brkout support near 3500 which is clearly seen on the chart.

07th may 2009...

as per previously posted nifty chart, the breakout tgt range mentioned is nearly done. the support area is 3480-3517. although nifty suddenly came down in intraday yday due to negative div and profit booking but has not damaged charts much, we will try to book part of the remaining 50% longs. nifty perhaps will still attempt to move toward the imp 3800-3820 resis area in coming days, beyond which at present looks a bit difficult.

a double whammy...

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(cartoon source:ab)

bulls on the rampage...

taking cues from overseas mkts, it were the bulls who took charge right from the beginning with a large opening gap and kept mkt firm throughout the day.

reason? huge cash buying to the tune of 1400 cr(cash prov.) and 1000 cr in f&o segment by the fiis.

diis were infact net sellers in cash.

this also caused another breakout from congestion pattern on upper side on the nifty eod price charts, the tentative tgts and sl's etc is as shown on the chart above.

mkt ahead...

just as it was said that "profit booking is due", we got a drop down on 28th april 2009 and for the first time triggering the intermediate term trailing profit stop(tsl) on closing basis, therefore as a good trading discipline 50% of the longs were to be covered/profit booked. pls remember the positions are supposed to be long from 2600 lvls, enough hint was given here about the same.

strategy is now the rest 50% are to be held with sl of 3296 and any upsides upto 3734-3800(strong resis) can be used for profit booking in stocks and nifty fut.

fiis are still buying in cash and f&o so as of now there's not much of panic or bearishness as such.

mkt is still ranged, but now we can see some negative div appearing on s&p500(us) and dow jones charts which could lead to some profit booking in those mkts although trending upward, that may possibly impact our mkt also.

since nifty is ranged a sort of short to medium term congestion type pattern is emerging on eod charts waiting for direction for break out or breakdown.

28th april 2009...

nothing much has changed on intermdeiate positional basis and the trend is still up.

fiis have net bought about 1061 cr in cash(prov.) and f&o trade combined basically in cash and index options.

the approx. range 3300-3512 is not broken closing basis though it was temporarily breached on its either side by about 4-5 points in last few days.

support or tsl has shifted up to 3384 and the stop loss is 3296 closing basis.

there is to and fro movement around 200 dma and nifty is trying to stay above it. yday a higher high was made intraday whereas negative divergence on indicator hints at some profit booking is due.

nifty ahead...

fiis net bought 241 cr.(prov. cash)+641cr.(f&o)
diis bought 425 cr. in equity(prov. cash).

mkt behaved exactly as been mentioned in previous posts. one more interesting thing is it moved exactly within our two drawn support trendlines! therefore intraday support and resis for yday was very well known.

the nifty spot rangebound movement roughly 3300 to 3512 was very played by intraday traders selling at highs and buying at lows during the last so many sessions. yday alone it meant a whopping 100 plus points in intraday!

also the intermediate trend is intact with the lower tline being respected so far, so buy at dips or holding onto the positional existing longs worked well.

any closings below this line will be bearish and a breach of which could lead to a test of 3147 etc.

hence positional (intermediate trend) players, trade with positive bias with tline tsl of 3330 or the imp 3000 lvl as support.

correction: pls read the last line above as,'hence positional (intermediate trend) players, trade with positive bias with tline tsl of 3330 or the imp 3300 lvl as support'. error is regretted.

20th april 2009...

last three days nifty is trading in sideways range roughly 3300-3512, much more beneficial as an intraday play, positional players can hold on to longs with tline as closing basis support/tsl. the other way to trade this could be waiting for a breakout of this range for fresh positions. some caution going ahead as nifty is overbought and still hovering near 200 dma and has hardly corrected since rally low of 2540. the reader may recall that i had marked the bullish nifty fut reversal at low near 2550, its a 1000 points on the trot since then and all stocks have flied even 40-50%. well at the moment its not very bearish and uptrend still on but one may ask is this high one way move sustainable short term. if huge profit booking comes in, 3147 can act as good support if 3300 breaks closing basis.

a reaction around 200dma..

fiis net (-738f&o+479cash=-259cr.), diis were huge sellers in cash stocks to the tune of 1125 cr!

this had a significant impact on mkt as nifty came down from a high of 3511 to low of 3354 during the day.

the uptrend is still on with trendline support as shown near 3300.

3300 looks imp and below 3300 if selling persists it can move upto 3200 closing below 3200 will be bearish as lower tline uptrend breaks.

we had mentioned about this criss cross/profit booking around 200 dma in last few posts before mkt takes a direction or reacts to come down.