nifty chart: resistances and supports zone...

supports/resistances...

nifty spot supp 2732/2716/2680, resis 2770/2790.
reliance spot below 1130 tgt 1122/1110/1087 sl 1150.

nifty near supports...

previously given lvl of 2630 acted as strong support for nifty for the last two days.

now if 2612/2570 is held, then the short term uptrend may continue going forward.

outlook on mkt...

finally the bounce that was awaited took place on last thursday and friday, and if indeed a short term bullish reversal is made near 2500 and if it is indeed a part of the wave C-4-(3), then it should form an earlier part of an uptrend from 2503 and a dip becomes a buying opportunity for a short term, to be exited at end of C-4-(3) where it is again to be shorted for C-5 to 2000 lvl.

short term tgt 2710/2750/2785/2882 sl 2630.
short to medium term tgt 3100/3250/3700 sl 2485.

nifty lvls...

2485, 2454, 2375 to be watched on the downside on nifty spot if opens weak today on bearish global cues.

view on mkt...

while iam expecting some upmove toward 2900-3000 in couple of days, it should be used by traders for positional shorting with prev highs as sl, as according to the bias as posted earlier, nifty is weak and would drift further down. for investors slowly some accumulation may be done on any such big dips.

nifty chart...

at the moment nifty seems like following the downward sloping channel, but if weakness persists and the channel as well as the fibo lvl 2630 also breaks without giving a bounce, then next lvl to watch is 2546.

my projected wave 4 scenario...

internal waves within our preferred wave 4 bias discussed earlier.

as one can see, i have sub-divided wave 4 into A(3 wave zig-zag), ongoing B(3 wave flat). therefore wave 4 also becomes a flat. wave C after B can become truncated if support area(above 2631) is respected.

support and resistance areas are also marked by ellipses.

dotted arrows showing the speculated projected directions of mkt movement for monday and afterwards.

update: ongoing B above structure changed to 3 wave zig-zag from flat, others remain same as given earlier.

***only for academic purposes.

some significant lvls/tgts...

crucial lvls to be held on s&p500 us(768),dow(7200-7400),nifty(1800-2000),sensex(6100) as given in earlier posts.

above are 5 year lows for s&p 500(us), 10 year lows for dow, previous bull mkt brkout as well as very long term trendline support lvls for nifty and sensex.

below those lvls danger of s&p 500(us) and dow to slip in structural long term bear mkt(recession) whereas for nifty and sensex may best not break those lvls as growth going forward it supports view of staying in long term bull mkt.

if the next 1-2 years pan out as expected in bear mkt in stock mkts then gold it is undergoing correction 550 looks possible in a few years if not held maybe 400 max then upmove as per kondratiev bullish cycle. on nymex crude, 38 the lvl where it did a bullish brkout 5 years ago looks a possibility if 49-50 not held(all in $ prices above).

pls note these tgts/lvls are speculative in nature and are as per my analysis on ew.

channel magic!

further ew moves...

yday i said "now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested."

during the day nifty slid upto 2860 and bounced to 3005 then again came down below 2900.

now if 2860 is broken these downside lvls will come.


C-4, C-5 or big B, so what wave we are in right now?

C-5 will be confirmed closing below 2631, for now its both options big B and C-4 for us. if big B is correct(which is doubtful) then rally up over recent highs from any of the above given lvls, if C-4 is correct(our present bias) then nifty will get into a rangebound movement after hitting above lvls for few days before breaking down. in C-4 scenario upper limit will be probably 3100.

mkt the next move...

yday the upmove got resisted exactly on my resistance line earlier marked on sensex monthly chart previously posted here.

now on nifty we should watch the fibo ret(2862/2746/2631) of this upmove from 2253-3240. if not held then previous low will be likely to be tested.

elliott wave chart and market view.

nifty ew tentative wave counts chart.

we already discussed the previous low being significant pricewise (C=1.618xA) and timewise(time equal to A leg). so nifty may well have made the low or will make in coming days if above ew chart is correct. with other techniques like lowest p/e etc it was proved beyond doubt about the correctness of the tgt.

if last leg of C i.e C-5 is pending, that can terminate near the previous low, then every big dip from hereon gives a great buying opportunity to investors to pick their favourite stocks(like bluechips ril,sbin,lt etc) at very attractive p/e, p/b valuations in this month.

even if all the downwaves of big wave A are over by any chance and big wave B started as some friends are suggesting, even then the mkt remains buy on dips, and since bear mkts last longer than 2-3 years it makes sense to either sell the averaged holdings near completion of big upmove B in first half of next year or hold with a long term term view.

nifty view...

there is a bullish breakaway gap 2920-2964 on nifty spot that can be sl for positional longs, if trades below the lower end of gap for sometime, it may turn bearish.