nifty fundamental valuations...

the fundamentally life time high valuations were cautioned since many months.


on 8th jan, after touching the peak p/e mkts did make a big crash.

anything above max p/e would have been a bubble i.e euphoric run. technically mkt should spend lot of time at lower side(consolidate) without breaking the low.

any possible upmove now above 6357 can be justfied in next financial year after couple of months, after factoring in next year earnings.

lets have a look at min(13 p/e) and max(28.50 p/e) valuations(historic).

fy07-08:

eps=225

nifty (min): 225*13(times)=2925.

nifty(max): 225*28.50(times)=6412.50.

fy08-09:

expected averaged earnings growth of nifty50 stocks=15%

projected eps=225*(1+15/100)=258.

nifty(min):258*13(times)=3354.

nifty(max):258*28.50(times)=7353.

these figures of nifty(min) and nifty(max) also agree strikingly with technical tgts in case of bear and bull mkts.

by abhay r somkuwar.

stocks to watch...

stocks for short to medium term buy ,

gujalkali near cmp tgt 280/307 sl 240 cl basis,
jpassociate tgt 493/553 sl cl 418 basis,
apil tgt 1170/1215 sl 980 cl basis,
rpl tgt 257/265 sl cl basis 215..

stocks to watch...

stocks to watch for short term on buy side adlabsfilm, tatamotors.

a happy new year to all...

wishing you and your family a very happy and prosperous new year, may you be blessed with good health and profitable trading/investing in the years to come .

market today and in coming days...

for monday the range i see is 6055-6115 and broader one as 5985-6205 in coming days.

any price volumes breakout closing above 6110.85 means facing resistance at previous high 6185 a possibility open for 510 points from 6110.85, but below 5945 can take it to 5780.

positional sl cl basis 5960.

positional stocks to watch abb, rel.

many leading stocks are showing interesting developments on charts, once they breakout/breakdown some of them i'll try to give here with possible targets.

latest update on my ew count...

there are indications of confirmation of alternate wave count as the right one and wave iii of V-5th is proceeding.

the probable tgt for V-5th wave is 6488/7163.

stocks to watch...

ydays stocks to watch cairn, tatapower, polaris also performed very well.

stocks to watch on buy side for intraday of 2-3 days: l&t, tatasteel, hindalco, nalco, bhel, tatamotors, suzlon, hul, bankbaroda, axisbank, rel, patni.

a merry christmas...

wishing all a merry christmas and a happy and prosperous new year 2008.

jingle bells, jingle all the way.

my updated alternate ew counts...

most ew analysts have gone wrong recently while giving ew counts.

wave counts had to be modified by me after ydays correction after giving some thought.

wave i is in the shape of rising wedge(triangle) and

most probably wave ii down is now completed,

we are now awaiting wave iii to go up, if this wave count is correct.

till then we treat it as an alternate wave count.

tgts to be given later on confirmation.

18/12/2007.

wwil-a technical analysis case study...

many friends had asked for some guidance on studying charts and ta hence posting here such a study for benefit of all.

wwil chart and accompanying commentary is self explanatory.

latest update on my ew analysis...

stock to watch-ispat industries ltd...

update on my ew analysis...

for internal structure wise of 4th(i.e A-B-C) together the time was about 20 days, but for V-4th flat corrective the time for completion is between 16-32 days and so far it has been correcting for 19 days.

as has been written earlier about this 4th wave, both A and B have completed and C is now going on, both A and B were zigzags internally containing 3 sub-waves a,b,c each.


about the C sub-waves:

as has been written earlier, the pattern for correction of C can be downward or sideways but the structure will most probably contain 5 sub-waves in a shape of ending diagonal(triangular) or impulsive, the 3rd sub-wave of C is now going on. if the C is an ED, then each next sub-waves 3,4,5 will be smaller and smaller than its earlier sub-wave but in case of impulsive structure 3 is likely to be the largest of the subwaves and hence if the C correction turns out to be impulsive then only a big fall nearing 5030 can be expected and not the given tgts. at the moment we are watching for earlier tgts and structure. the picture will get clearer going forward.

total magnitude/tgts have already been given in earlier updates on ew, though the actuals may vary.

disclaimer: no ew softwares have ever been used for this analysis, iam doing it only by manual calculations/estimation.

stock to watch: ceat

breakout from rectangle pattern.