update on my ew analysis...

total time estimated initially for flat corrective wave V4 completion was 16 days.
B had retraced exactly 95% of wave A.
C wave probable tgt was 5321 and today it came near it correction maybe mostly complete, the correction if it is still pending, then the next probable max tgts on downside would be 5263/5147/5117.

this is according to ew theory.

latest update on my ew analysis...

earlier i had assumed wave 4 of V as a flat corrective and everything going as per my prediction so far hence haven't changed the wave counts.

currently the larger C of 4th downwave is proceeding. wave A and wave B both were zigzags and C could be an impulsive structure or an ending diagonal and as such would be diffult to trade and picture will be clearer as it progresses hence general trend is to be followed. the C could terminate closer to previous low of A.

i estimate the time for completion of this correction in coming 3-8 days.

my ew analysis chart...

none of the counts/magnitudes being changed since last time, posting just the updated chart.

sensex and nifty yearly charts...

sensex and nifty yearly(all spot prices) charts with projections of future lvls.

nifty range 5600-6000 and 5800 should be cl sl for spot nifty.

today and in coming days also it may not be possible to cross and close above 6000.

stock to watch in coming days ifci.tgt 127 cl sl 75, petronet above 117 tgt 132/147 sl 108 all cl basis.

other stocks are grasim, drreddy and lichsgfin.

update on my ew analysis...

depending on mkt behaviour, some wave counts/magnitudes may be modified going forward, when necessary.

sensex yearly chart...

sensex yearly chart, this year it should atleast close somewhere near/above 17000, next year low on the lower end of the channel on the chart is somewhere near 17000 for a tgt of more of than 28000 on upper end of the channel.

mkt saw a phenomenal run in rpl and rnrl stocks in the last few days. but what will be their blow out rally targets???

***if rpl closes consistently above 270 lvl it can go is 390.
***if rnrl closes consistently above 152 lvl it can go is 227.

***this is academic and not an invitation to buy.

latest on my ew analysis...its a bulls eye again...

previous posts

http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2007/10/latest-update-on-my-ew-analysis.html

summary: the projected wave counts from that day onward were given as 5771-5071-6223-5044-6700

in the above post, i had given the wave iii-(iii) tgt as 5771 and actually it did go to 5736.

then it was given that wave iii-(iv) will go down 700 points i.e. 5071 and it actually went down to 5070.90!!!.

again it was given that wave iii-(v) will go up from there with a tgt of 6223 and so far it has achieved a high of 5976.

my above ew analysis has been extremely accurate till now, lets watch for further wave developments.

sensex weekly channels and running triangle. upper blue and black lines to offer resistance going forward. lower green lines to offer support in case lower support black line is breached on closing basis.

nifty and sensex major trendlines...

for sensex, the support is near 14100 for this month and 14600 for next month on the trendline(its not a channel).both the charts are on log scale.

for nifty, the support is near 4100 this month and 4200 next month on the lower trendline.

just add one more vertical line for the december month in the sensex monthly chart above and hurray the upper tgt for 2007 comes exactly as 20000!!!

hence, i have drawn the above chart and trendlines correctly.

nifty for friday, 19th oct 2007...

medium term trend is broken by a small margin today by nifty and such a situation is bearish however a couple of closings in the red will confirm this. but bounce on good news is possible.

immediate resistances 5429/5453/5525.
supports 5269/5107/5000/4930/4530

fiis were net sellers in cash again today to the order of Rs.1130 crores and diis bought in very small amounts in cash(provisional figures).

in f&o segment high turnover of Rs.110563.83 crores was recorded. fiis sold net Rs.4221.90 crores. it is known that the fiis have a very large impact upon the direction of indian stock mkts. nifty future traded at a huge 32 point discount to spot adjusted at close and at one time was as high as 151 points, an indication of large amount of shorts being built up in nifty futures.

further update on my ew count...

yday i had assumed wave v to start from the low of 5107.30 . this is still in reckoning as long as the low of 5107.30 is not broken in coming days and upward rally begins.

however, i have an alternative wave count looking at todays movement.

in this i have assumed wave iv has not ended and is currently undergoing a complex flat type of correction. as such, the downside is only upto 5100 to 5045 according to it.

latest update on my ew count...

i would say i made a perfect ew count. refer nifty ew chart below. today the wave iv made low of 5107.30 down 600 points from recent high of 5708.35. i had projected a downmove of about nearly 700 points earlier.

i assume wave v has now started from 5107.30 with a tgt of 6200. but for confirmation it has to cross and close above 5708.35.

positional shorts should not be initiated at this stage, buy on dips is a better strategy in view of the above wave count observation..