nifty view for next two months

nifty spot support1 6300 support 2 5800, above 6300 tgt1 6600 revised tgt2 7000

ab tak...

Rupee falls below 56('chappan' in hindi) to a dollar in today's trade crossing 55.55 and tgting lifetime spiked lows below 57 as given before !

'ab tak chappan'(hindi movie) means 56( encounters) till now...thats how much the rupee got hunted down to by the US dollar.

nifty p/e graph...23rd May 2012...

my nifty p/e graph is as shown below with various tgt lvls on both the downside(supports for investing) as well as upperside(resis for exiting mkt) as per different investment time frames based upon its current and latest earnings picture. figures depicted are subject to change with any change in mkt scenario.

lvls marked with squares are for long term.

opinions/views/figures expressed are for illustration purposes only and are not an express recommendation to buy or sell. as such the author hold no responsibilty for any actual loss arising out of any trading/invstmnts acting solely based upon the same.

mkt ahead...18th May 2012...

(continued/updtd from last post)

also i feel spot nifty is oversold and its a matter of time (max 10-15) days that it may begin its pullback toward 5200 lvl if 5080 is crossed. thereon it needs to be seen how it goes.


while the US mkt indices like Dow are likely to witness continuation of profit booking which may lead to good amount of correction and if that happens then nifty's pullback too may be short lived.

the historical spiked spot lows/tgts on Rupee are 55.55 and 57.80 per dollar respectively and there may be an attempt to test these lvls again (before it pullbacks) if there is no intervention by the central bank since now its in a free fall zone say above 54.46.

current near term nifty support is seen near 4790-4800 on spot as seen on eod chart posted previously.

nifty_mkt ahead 17th May 2012...

contrary to what most analysts saying on business channels that Rupee will weaken much more and go toward 58 and then 67 vs dollar and stock mkt is still in bear mkt and will plunge deep, when i studied the charts of ruppee-dollar futures as well as spot nifty  found that there is a nice negative divergence developing on this glorious upmove of $ on daily futures continous charts and yday it approached the resis lvl of earlier highs too and closed just shade below it(some upmove may still be left but only for short term) so if profit booking is there in currency(rupee-dollar) it could easily lead to a sharp downmove which would be good for stock mkts(mcx and brent nymex crude is already correcting).

also i feel spot nifty is oversold and its a matter of time (max 10-15) days that it may begin its pullback toward 5200 lvl if 5080 is crossed. thereon it needs to be seen how it goes.

while the US mkt indices like Dow are likely to witness continuation of profit booking which may lead to good amount of correction and if that happens then nifty's pullback too may be short lived.

the historical spiked spot lows/tgts on Rupee are 55.55 and 57.80 per dollar respectively and there may be an attempt to test these lvls again (before it pullbacks) if there is no intervention by the central bank since now its in a free fall zone say above 54.46.

current near term nifty support is seen near 4790-4800 on spot as seen on eod chart posted previously.

nifty chart(weekly)...07th May 2012...

chart showing nifty spot prev breakout from weekly tline/tchannel and likely coming support zone.

roadmap for nifty

rampant continued selling on last friday after opening weakness was quite surprising as nifty could'nt hold the previous lows, the slide continued below 5100 ultimately making low on an imp support lvl near 5070 as shown on chart. some short-lived bounce may be expected from this lvl.

nifty likely roadmap for coming days/weeks with various possibilities Cases 1a-b's and 2a-b's as shown on the following eod nifty spot chart.

chart is self explanatory.

mkt view...30th Jan 2012...

with lowering of CRR had an overwhelming response on mkt with money flowing in, in Jan and Feb 2012 we saw it gaining almost 1100 points from the lows of  about 4550. this also led to breakout on long term charts above the crucial 5200 lvls and imp lvl that was also a resis on falling weekly trendline from the top of 6338. thereafter bad news from govt side policy indecisions mild budget etc has led to profit booking from fiis and diis alternately and created a confusing trading environment on day to day or even short to medium basis.

eventhough RBI has recently reduced repo rate by unexpected 50 basis points mkt was not enthused in its response, instead we saw hammering of the bank stocks.

April month is ending today it is imp for nifty to save the crucial 5159 monthly breakdown lvl at the same time to gain atleast 12-13 more points today to close month above 5222. since the trading range is getting narrower and narrower some breakout/ breakdown can happen soon, for it to happen on upperside(in current uptrend) it is good for it to give a brkout above 5267 May end which will bring momentum in the mkt and new investment for longer term. new Banking laws amendments, fuel policy reforms, steps toward reducing current account deficit. fiscal consolidation, full clarity on GAAR etc(till 8th May), fall in inflation, further RBI interest rate reduction and better quarterly results will hold the key on positive side.

view on market...30th jan 2012...

dear readers,

welcome to the new year 2012 !!! I am posting this after a long long time. Since we were/are still in bear mkt therefore very few postings were made as blog largely put views for positional and long term investors that are on buy side. iam sorry for the inconvenience caused to devoted blog followers,well-wishers and friends because of the delay.

posting an old nifty chart of mine updated for recent moves. nifty has reached the weekly downtrend channel upper trendline again after respecting the 4700 lvl largely falling slightly below it for a brief period of time and bouncing on RBI governor's hint at peaking of interest rates and followed by crr cut more recently. a reaction at this point at upper end would be a natural profit booking of the glorious 10% rally on nifty. even though nifty remained in longer term downtrend, stocks were earlier mercilessly beaten down which in last month's rally have seen good buying by FII's and others and as such are looking good for a long term investment buy. however one should wait for the mkt to turn to long term bullishness too, else it would be just a trading kind of move.

near and short term resistance as seen from above chart is 5200 spot. short term support is near/above 5000.

(to be updated)

mkt ahead...19th aug 2011...

as has been said for last more than 6 months about the nifty reaching towards 4700 and a roadmap chart/graphs also been posted on the blog, finally we're here to near 4800 ! readers had been previously been asked to book investment positions with accurate tgt 6340 and for those left with open positions on long term investments later on were advised to profit booking on bounce upto 5900 where indeed it went and turned back downward. and on final dip and bounce nifty could not cross even the initial fresh upmove decider lvl of 5700-5750 which was mentioned in my posts, thereafter coming down again on large selling and profit booking to 4700.

have a look at march 2011 and before that forecasted map of nifty by me:

so dear friends/readers, most stocks have come down heavily and looking good at cheap and attractive valuations. and after this big correction, the nifty is oversold on both eod and weekly charts and is near to major support 4780 or whatever and there is expected to be a bounce sooner but pls wait before making fresh investmnt.

inflation rates...

rate of inflation in india over a period of time and in some of the major economies of the world.

In India the inflation seems to have peaked back in early last year and is tapering off thanks to the steps taken by the RBI. But as can be seen we still have high inflation rate CPI due mainly buoyant food prices led price rise which is not able to meet the huge demand supply gap owing to many factors. some GDP growth rate got sacrificed in checking the inflation. however if the RBI and the govt remains serious in controlling inflation and due to the actual effect coming after 4-6 month of recent rise in repo and reverse repo rates measure if the inflation rates gets checked below 6-7 mark till first quarter next year then it will be better as a whole for the economy.

mkt ahead...18th july 2011...

as i had indicated repeatedly before that some sort of profit booking or correction/reversal would likely happen near 5700/5725 etc.

finally we had near to short term reversal on triggering of 5600 spot on downside which was given as tsl for short term longs which were already in about 300 point gain earlier and so nifty is in near term downtrend with sideways consolidation in last couple of trading sessions.

the previously given supports of 5450 and 5400 in the last post may be still valid for the short term uptrend from june lows.

hence the broader near to short term range for the nifty seems to be in between 5400-5750 at present.

for the near term trade positive only if nifty trades above 5654. for intraday one can trade long if nifty starts trading above 5597-5600 for 20-30 points.

mkt ahead...nifty 11th july 2011...

nifty underwent a sideways rangebound profit booking till 5600 which was given as stoploss/exit for near to short term longs without breaking down below it and made a suprise upmove on thursday and did close  above 5725 but failed to close above 5700-5720 on last friday. hence a fresh bullish breakout on weekly charts was not done.

earlier a brkout tgt from 5500 of  5750 from earlier triangular consolidation pattern is completed which led to profit booking on longs.

so far a reversal in its uptrend has not taken place.

as pointed out earlier, it is facing resistance at 5700 and may be still in that bigger downtrend(a brkout from which it can be freshly bullish upto 5800 and 5900 intitially. 5900 will be final deciding level for downtrend to end and will keep possibility of lows below 5177 open. but will it really go 5900 or above it cannot be said with certainty just now). support for short term is near 5450 and short term sl is 5400 which is the support on the trend channel.

mkt ahead...nifty 04th july 2011...

nifty crossed the crucial resistance zone of 5610-5620 too and and did well for itself moved to next big resis of 5700-5720 of July and can get a reaction here so be cautious as it might show some sort of reversal or profit booking also. one can keep a tight sl of 5585(support 5600) spot cl basis if they have rolled over their nf longs. nifty would be freshly bullish only above say 5725 spot.