mkt ahead...

i had not only given 5400 as short to medium term tgt but also given in what fashion nifty will move and come back down to 5100 etc. not only that i had cautioned on 12th and 13th april 2010 regarding tsl for profit booking for these positions and given 5230 cl sl for those who did not book their positions. after which i had said a bounce will occur and 5187 will hold for near term, and nifty did exactly that and went upto 5350 giving a very good exit to those people who did not book their stocks/nifty short to medium term positions earlier(20th april 2010).

it was said mkt had entered in a bearish zone for short to medium term but deep cut may be utilised for buying by medium to long term investment perspective.

yday nifty came down to below 5150. right now even 5100 looks like not holding and nifty may slide to deeper lvls on account of deep cut in dow and global mkts. when the right time to cover shorts or take cash buying will come we will know, for which we have to closely monitor the mkt in coming days.

here onwards, i am thinking of closing blog or restrict the entry due to weak and disapponting response from readers despite giving very useful views on indian stock market, global stock markets and commodities like copper, gold and crude oil as well as currency oulook, and other info at no cost and even keeping the blog ad free all these years.

mkt ahead...03rd may 2010...

refer to 20th april post. mkt has performed exactly as per view.

there is no change in the outlook, nifty may slide to 5100 area in coming days where short term support and pullback in mkt may be found. reliance had also been weak and has some further downside left, comparatively rnrl and relinfra may perform better. lot of sectors showing exhaustion.

view on dow and s&p500(us) has also been very accurate. now some upside still possibly left in the dow, but if dow continues to correct below 10940 then can even come down about 7-8%. good short term support for bounce is near 10800.

therefore one can use any upsides from now for booking profits/exiting from stocks in short to medium term positions. medium to long term picture on dow and nifty is still bullish and any large dips in mkt can be used for accumulation purposes.

gold is bullish now, long term view on gold already given in ew analysis before(http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2009/12/my-gold-ew-chart.html).

on nymex crude my view is, its still in bear mkt rally but that does'nt mean it can't go toward the $100-110/barrel mark.

mkt ahead...26th apr 2010...

on account of slight diappointment on lower grm's, sales/profit estimates mkt may give a knee jerk reaction to reliance stock which may result in profit booking in the mkt initially to 5280/5250.

broad mkt views are as given in earlier post and replies to reader comments.

the indian paisa leak(ipl)...

"pls, take a 'pow'!!"...:)

mkt ahead...20th apr 2010...

profit booking is happening in our mkts lots of factors technical(reaching 5400 etc) and fundamental(inflation,credit policy, quarterly results,greece,us unemployment rate/jobless claims etc etc).

the weak dow closing on friday showed its impact on monday on indian stock mkt and nifty plunged to low of 5161.

it has also now closed below sl for short to medium term traders. therefore outlook becomes bearish for short term.

but since intraday to near term charts are in oversold territory one can expect a bounce/pullback to 5300 lvls on a green dow closing monday and perhaps tuesday. after which there may be more downside left in nifty probably towards 5100 area. 5187 can act as near term closing support for nifty spot.

separated at birth???...

there may be more, i could recall similarities in these at present.

hope u have enjoyed!!!

mkt ahead...16th apr 2010...

down day after closing below our short to medium term profit booking tsl given, others who not booked can hold with 5230 cl sl as this trend is still up.

intraday to near term nf short tgts from 5350(sl 5390) done twice, can either book or hold with suitable tsl.

my pc/os has crashed, all the data and tech s/w are inaccessible, trying to repair, so i may not be able to update the blog or twitter for few days, though meanwhile would still try to post view with charts/data from other online sites.

thanks,
abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead...12th april 2010...

5400 tgt done in style after 5320 for short to medium term on expected lines.

tsl for stmt positional traders now raising to 5318(as marked by small green circle on the spot nifty chart above). sl 5230 cl basis.(updated tuesday: tsl for today 5328 spot nifty cl basis)

s&p500(us)...timewise the large bears...

(charts courtesy:http://www.dshort.com)

my views on dow and s&p500(us) given in earlier posts.

nifty p/e chart and valuations...

my latest nifty p/e chart valuations and mkt ahead view...

last time nifty topped out on the intersection blue line and upper slanting gray line(marked by oval), this i had marked on the pe graph in advance only.

current zone where profit booking is coming since october 2009 is as shown by gray rectangle on chart that corresponds to p/e between 23 and 24.

note also how the p/e curve lines are getting restricted between the two upward slanting gray lines.

since the last earnings quarter the eps of nifty50 shares has been upgraded by about 5%. while in the last one year the nifty50 eps has been upgraded by little above 10 percent. because of this upgradation in eps the valuations do not look as expensive as they were in december last year, hence we seen money coming in to mkt and mkt moving higher above 5300.

with the continuing global recovery in financial mkts and economic growth, the nifty listed companies have a headroom for better profitability and earnings in coming years which will have a favourable impact on the earnings and eps of the nifty50 shares. so an expectation of 15-20% eps growth in next few years cannot be ruled out.

therefore it can be expected that on any major profit booking there will be a support led by buying at lower lvls by financial institutions, lets say initially somewhere near average p/e of 19-20(which by current eps comes to about 4450 or so).

and if jan-mar 2010 earnings upgrade also takes place(depending on favourable quarterly results, this takes some time) then this nifty initial support lvl may be shifted upward.

added in evening in reply:
the graph is for nifty50 and same thing doesn't apply to sensex30 stocks, the multiple could be different. since i have not tracked sensex graph, i can't say exactly about the sensex lvls.

on nifty50 perhaps 16-17 times current year eps is cheaper in a bull mkt, and 10-11 in bear mkt. 23.5-24 resis on upside corresponds to about 5500 or more as resis currently, which is also a technical resistance on charts.

there can be situations when
1)nifty50 eps is good and growing but money not coming in or is moving out of the mkt->low p/e,
2)eps not growing or negative growth but still large money inflows(money chasing stocks)->euphoria stage.

depending on fundamentals and the state of global economics and money flows(liquidity conditions) we have bull, bear or sideways mkts, the p/e multiple varies between cheap, fair, expensive or euphoric/bubble valuations.

if we are able to assess the state we are in we can take advantage and be successful to a large extent in the mkt. the p/e chart can help us alongwith other fundamental and technical data in taking such investment related decision.

mkt ahead...06th apr 2010...

in previous posts i had raised the short to medium tgts for nifty to 5320 and 5400.

it was also said that first tgt is achievable immediately and nifty will take spend some time near/below 5300 before proceeding to second tgt.

exactly same thing we saw happening in nifty actual trading. also i had from time to time given an updated/raised the tsl for short to medium term positional nifty traders(5240 last time) and as always it was so perfect it never got hit for those long positions, keeping them safe.

not much change in tsl required at present.

but nifty has run up and closed above the imp 5320.i.e., 5368. it has also given a breakout closing and the resis is now above 5450 where profit booking might come. so the second tgt 5400(approx.) is on the radar now. 5300 should be acting as near to short term support now.

intraday swing trading with camrilla equation lvls...nifty chart...

mkt ahead...31st mar 2010...

there is some profit booking after meeting our nifty tgt around 5320.

for short term positional longs tsl can be raised for today to 5240, sl below 5200.

it was an 'inside day'. positional near term directional call can be taken in the direction of brkout/brkdown. but intraday, upto a 50 point shorting opportunity was there on a symmetrical triangle brkdown.

going forward also it may not be easy for nifty to stay above 5300 and it may spend some more time below it and consolidate.

all in spot closing basis.

mkt ahead...29th mar 2010...

5200 tsl maintained for short term positional longs. one can keep holding with tgts 5320/5400.

at present 5320 looks more likely than the second one.

not much change in tsl though. some negative divergence is setting up on indicators, so one must be cautious at higher lvls which have acted as strong resistances in the past.



the lvls and other things are shown in the nifty spot eod chart above.