s&p500(us)...timewise the large bears...

(charts courtesy:http://www.dshort.com)

my views on dow and s&p500(us) given in earlier posts.

nifty p/e chart and valuations...

my latest nifty p/e chart valuations and mkt ahead view...

last time nifty topped out on the intersection blue line and upper slanting gray line(marked by oval), this i had marked on the pe graph in advance only.

current zone where profit booking is coming since october 2009 is as shown by gray rectangle on chart that corresponds to p/e between 23 and 24.

note also how the p/e curve lines are getting restricted between the two upward slanting gray lines.

since the last earnings quarter the eps of nifty50 shares has been upgraded by about 5%. while in the last one year the nifty50 eps has been upgraded by little above 10 percent. because of this upgradation in eps the valuations do not look as expensive as they were in december last year, hence we seen money coming in to mkt and mkt moving higher above 5300.

with the continuing global recovery in financial mkts and economic growth, the nifty listed companies have a headroom for better profitability and earnings in coming years which will have a favourable impact on the earnings and eps of the nifty50 shares. so an expectation of 15-20% eps growth in next few years cannot be ruled out.

therefore it can be expected that on any major profit booking there will be a support led by buying at lower lvls by financial institutions, lets say initially somewhere near average p/e of 19-20(which by current eps comes to about 4450 or so).

and if jan-mar 2010 earnings upgrade also takes place(depending on favourable quarterly results, this takes some time) then this nifty initial support lvl may be shifted upward.

added in evening in reply:
the graph is for nifty50 and same thing doesn't apply to sensex30 stocks, the multiple could be different. since i have not tracked sensex graph, i can't say exactly about the sensex lvls.

on nifty50 perhaps 16-17 times current year eps is cheaper in a bull mkt, and 10-11 in bear mkt. 23.5-24 resis on upside corresponds to about 5500 or more as resis currently, which is also a technical resistance on charts.

there can be situations when
1)nifty50 eps is good and growing but money not coming in or is moving out of the mkt->low p/e,
2)eps not growing or negative growth but still large money inflows(money chasing stocks)->euphoria stage.

depending on fundamentals and the state of global economics and money flows(liquidity conditions) we have bull, bear or sideways mkts, the p/e multiple varies between cheap, fair, expensive or euphoric/bubble valuations.

if we are able to assess the state we are in we can take advantage and be successful to a large extent in the mkt. the p/e chart can help us alongwith other fundamental and technical data in taking such investment related decision.

mkt ahead...06th apr 2010...

in previous posts i had raised the short to medium tgts for nifty to 5320 and 5400.

it was also said that first tgt is achievable immediately and nifty will take spend some time near/below 5300 before proceeding to second tgt.

exactly same thing we saw happening in nifty actual trading. also i had from time to time given an updated/raised the tsl for short to medium term positional nifty traders(5240 last time) and as always it was so perfect it never got hit for those long positions, keeping them safe.

not much change in tsl required at present.

but nifty has run up and closed above the imp 5320.i.e., 5368. it has also given a breakout closing and the resis is now above 5450 where profit booking might come. so the second tgt 5400(approx.) is on the radar now. 5300 should be acting as near to short term support now.

intraday swing trading with camrilla equation lvls...nifty chart...

mkt ahead...31st mar 2010...

there is some profit booking after meeting our nifty tgt around 5320.

for short term positional longs tsl can be raised for today to 5240, sl below 5200.

it was an 'inside day'. positional near term directional call can be taken in the direction of brkout/brkdown. but intraday, upto a 50 point shorting opportunity was there on a symmetrical triangle brkdown.

going forward also it may not be easy for nifty to stay above 5300 and it may spend some more time below it and consolidate.

all in spot closing basis.

mkt ahead...29th mar 2010...

5200 tsl maintained for short term positional longs. one can keep holding with tgts 5320/5400.

at present 5320 looks more likely than the second one.

not much change in tsl though. some negative divergence is setting up on indicators, so one must be cautious at higher lvls which have acted as strong resistances in the past.



the lvls and other things are shown in the nifty spot eod chart above.

mkt ahead...22nd mar 2010...

some profit booking looks like happening now, on expected lines. the mkt may undergo some amount of correction.

already said to book profits in longs at or above 5250 at right time(refer tweeter updates) for near to short term. the short term support is 5150(tsl) and sl near 5000 which should act as good support in short to medium term(added thursday: for today, this tsl can be raised to 5200 cl basis).

mkt ahead...17th mar 2010...

another breakout above 5151. most tgts done. expected profit booking did'nt come after monday. nifty tgt is now raised to 5300 for the short term. tsl for short term positional longs can be raised to 5090 cl basis.

mkt ahead...16th mar 2010...

no change in the nifty view.

my views for the dow jones and s&p500(us) are as follows:

unlike nifty or sensex the dow has been technically quite steady and stable mkt not created panic of any sort and holding its supports, maintaining the uptrend on intermediate and long term(one year) charts. if continues like this then a tgt of 11300 or more should be achievable this year in medium term once it starts trading above the 10767 lvl. this could possibly be a final leg up before it corrects significantly and then heads higher on long term charts.

the s&p500(us) is currently outperforming the dow index and may well lead in breaking out on upside. if that happens then 1230-1250 should be achievable in short to medium term. other things said about dow applies to the s&p index also.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead...11th mar 2010...

nifty is in a tight range of 50 odd points since last three days.

while currently seems limited downside to the mkt, about 100 points, the tsl for short term positional players can be kept near/below 5000 lvl.

near term resistances/profit booking near 5150/5180/5200 lvls.

profit booking possibility can be there from monday onwards.

mkt ahead...08th mar 2010...

nothing much to add...short term trend is up and tgts of 5183/5200 still on cards. 5300 is distinct possibility.

global mkts are also supporting this currently.

tsl for short term positional players is just below 4945 cl basis.

for intraday/near term nifty trading positions pls refer to the twitter updates given above.

fii and dii cash figures...

since mid feb 2010 net fii cash flows have mostly been in positive territory while dii's have been on net selling side, the mkt trend is reflective of this.

mkt ahead...03rd mar 2010...

nifty has moved exactly as per view given in last post(pls go through 18th feb 2010 post on mkt ahead). it respected and held the 4780-4930 area very well and bounced off more than 200 points. all our given upper tgt lvls are achieved today!!!




inverted H&S and other studies give an approx tgt 5200 on nifty. its also in near to short term uptrend as mentioned earlier.

therefore positional players long near 4830 can either keep a cl sl of 4780 for catching more uptrend, if left, else others also can book positional longs partially.(this statement is suitably corrected at 1.04 pm today on 3rd mar 2010)

if profit booking comes, then a price movement upto 4900(neckline of the supposed IHS) cannot be ruled out.

nifty f&o views/calls/strategies...

as mentioned earlier, i would attempt to give my nifty f&o views/calls strategy for trading intraday via tweets which would be updated above this blog post.

however it should be noted that,
1) trading in f&o is risky and only for traders who are agile and who have a trading risk appetite.
2) minimum capital required for this trading would be 80 thousand or more.
3) updates to be given any time during the day.
4) updates may not be possible in case of power/internet failure or any unavoidable circumstances.
5) trader/reader is free to follow or not follow and take his own decision and discretion while execution, responsibility for any profit or loss arising is solely his/her own.