mkt ahead...16th mar 2010...

no change in the nifty view.

my views for the dow jones and s&p500(us) are as follows:

unlike nifty or sensex the dow has been technically quite steady and stable mkt not created panic of any sort and holding its supports, maintaining the uptrend on intermediate and long term(one year) charts. if continues like this then a tgt of 11300 or more should be achievable this year in medium term once it starts trading above the 10767 lvl. this could possibly be a final leg up before it corrects significantly and then heads higher on long term charts.

the s&p500(us) is currently outperforming the dow index and may well lead in breaking out on upside. if that happens then 1230-1250 should be achievable in short to medium term. other things said about dow applies to the s&p index also.

-abhay r somkuwar.

mkt ahead...11th mar 2010...

nifty is in a tight range of 50 odd points since last three days.

while currently seems limited downside to the mkt, about 100 points, the tsl for short term positional players can be kept near/below 5000 lvl.

near term resistances/profit booking near 5150/5180/5200 lvls.

profit booking possibility can be there from monday onwards.

mkt ahead...08th mar 2010...

nothing much to add...short term trend is up and tgts of 5183/5200 still on cards. 5300 is distinct possibility.

global mkts are also supporting this currently.

tsl for short term positional players is just below 4945 cl basis.

for intraday/near term nifty trading positions pls refer to the twitter updates given above.

fii and dii cash figures...

since mid feb 2010 net fii cash flows have mostly been in positive territory while dii's have been on net selling side, the mkt trend is reflective of this.

mkt ahead...03rd mar 2010...

nifty has moved exactly as per view given in last post(pls go through 18th feb 2010 post on mkt ahead). it respected and held the 4780-4930 area very well and bounced off more than 200 points. all our given upper tgt lvls are achieved today!!!




inverted H&S and other studies give an approx tgt 5200 on nifty. its also in near to short term uptrend as mentioned earlier.

therefore positional players long near 4830 can either keep a cl sl of 4780 for catching more uptrend, if left, else others also can book positional longs partially.(this statement is suitably corrected at 1.04 pm today on 3rd mar 2010)

if profit booking comes, then a price movement upto 4900(neckline of the supposed IHS) cannot be ruled out.

nifty f&o views/calls/strategies...

as mentioned earlier, i would attempt to give my nifty f&o views/calls strategy for trading intraday via tweets which would be updated above this blog post.

however it should be noted that,
1) trading in f&o is risky and only for traders who are agile and who have a trading risk appetite.
2) minimum capital required for this trading would be 80 thousand or more.
3) updates to be given any time during the day.
4) updates may not be possible in case of power/internet failure or any unavoidable circumstances.
5) trader/reader is free to follow or not follow and take his own decision and discretion while execution, responsibility for any profit or loss arising is solely his/her own.

mkt ahead...18th feb 2010...

allright so we got the bounce and also this 100 point movement i was writing about after crossing the mentioned zone earlier and baby bulls took nifty to 4930. hope the readers might have benefitted to some extent. many times analyzing the mkt is bit easier than actually writing and explaining the views here, like this time, and i may go completely wrong in my views/opinion on mkt too, however let me try to explain.

what i feel is that some more move upto 4980 may be left. if any profit booking comes and gets limited to 4780-4830 then the move to 4980-5015-5070 may be possible in the near to short term. but again 4951 will be crucial and at higher end selling may again start.

actually the selling in early feb was far more than needed/anticipated and the lack of volumes on follow up bounce/pullback hints that more selling might be left in the short term till 4650/4450 after this pullback gets over. if such a scenario occurs and nifty then is unable to quickly pullback up over the imp 4590-4650 area, then it may actually become quite bearish and nifty may try to move to 4250 lvls in the medium term.

however this bearish view will get negated to some extent(not fully) if the nifty continues its upward journey and starts closing above the mentioned 4983-5015 lvls with an increase in the trading volumes. like e.g., yday's volumes were better with a bullish macd-signal crossover, but a short term uptrend is yet to be established above 4951.

one has to be cautious and trade carefully in coming days. mkt movement will have to be closely watched and accordingly i will try to give more updates in coming days as per my view, if at all necessary.

-abhay r somkuwar.

(discl: pls read the disclaimer above)

mkt ahead...10th feb 2010...

as expected, some sort of a bounce is happening in the near term and early signs of it looks positive as it has broken out of falling tline resistance.

positive global cues along with positive divergence from oversold territory might help nifty to move up.

nifty has to stay near or above yday close or above the tline in coming days.

however for gaining some strength on the upperside(and for arresting movement toward 4600 etc) few closings above 4825-4834 will be better, which would ensure a further movement of atleast 100 odd points. however since macd and other indicators are still bearish it would take some more time to establish a sustainable uptrend. 4951 is resistance where or before some selling might again come.

above 4952 the short term trend reverses on the upside.

nifty charts...08th feb 2010...

nifty spot daily(eod) chart:

downtrend still on with further weakness as macd and ema is in bearish crossovers.

freshly bearish below the very imp 4800 lvl and downside opens upto 4500-4600, also has broken below one of the support trendlines(blue line).

only good thing is positive divergence developing on indicators in oversold region, bottom could be near that could lead to a sizeable bounce that may come later.




nifty weekly chart:

major supports(green lines) and resistances(red lines) are as shown in the chart.


(charts coustesy:www.icharts.in)


fii net cash selling is still on:

mkt follow up...(charts)...

nifty eod chart posted on 28/01/2010:


current nifty eod chart:


atleast two points to be noted from the charts and the earlier mkt views:

1)in the view it was predicted that the downtrend low/bounce may occur just before or on last friday which it did accurately again.

2)nifty spot took support exactly on the drawn trendline support, which is yet to be violated.

fii and dii figures...

equity/cash mkt data:

mkt ahead 28th jan 2010...nifty eod(chart)...

trend: short term downtrend

trade day: big down day with break below imp supports.

trading volumes: high

macd: bearish

rsi: in oversold region

trendlines: some support and resis trendlines as shown

significant support: 4800

major support/exit(must stay closing below this for few days):
4500 approx for medium to intermediate term investors
3900 for long term investors

-abhay r somkuwar.

just for fun!!!

just for fun!

being a small 3d enthusiast i have done some anaglyph conversions(not a big deal:)).

have uploaded the avatar movie trailer on the youtube.

check the video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5DPkRBytLQ

mkt ahead...25th jan 2010...

nifty continues in its short term downtrend.

again an initial movement toward 5000 intraday possible due to weak global mkts.

4925/4940 thereafter still has a chance and will be imp on closing basis. hence not sure of reaching 4800 immediately in a couple of days.

resistances are placed well far above(near ones being 5094/5118) so the mkt has to do a lot on upperside to turn into near to short term bullishness even if any bounce comes after this downtrend gets over(maybe near or before friday). updates later.