market view: then, now and going forward...

lets rewind a bit...

from intraday ew counts we had concluded the previous short term upmove will get over around 4700 odd followed by a decline to 4580(4570 as support) or so and if not held then only a decline to 4500-4550 where again it will be a buying opportunity for next upmove to 4900 etc which will act as a good resis going forward. a nifty range chart was also put up with clearly marked brkout(4755)/down(4527)lvls. months ago we had projected dollar index to be bottoming in 75-77 range.


what has actually happened...

reaction came in below 4750 followed by downmove getting supported just above 4570, followed by upmove till just below 4900 where it got reacted again, everything just as per expectations. in between a bullish brkout from 4755 also has taken place.
also noteworthy is nifty has already retraced 61.8% of entire downmove from 6357 to 2253 and has closed above it. the us dollar index its there in projected range 75-77 already but still no sign of any reversal taking place, good for the equity mkts.


what to expect...

as said so many times before, nifty is nearing its bear mkt peak/bull mkt profit taking valuations of 22 times eps which comes to around 4900 which remained our tgt for a long time, its nearly done. technically since nifty is on a bullish brkout can go to 4970 or even 5100/5300/5500(i.e., 4700+800) as many are expecting. a touch of euphoria may be setting in.


so what to do?...

those lvls may or may not come immediately. so far, apart from the negative divergences we can see no bearishness either in nifty chart or the US or global indices incl the dollar index etc. but who knows if a reaction can come any time suddenly and sharply then what. some small profit booking can be done in medium to long term investment. the best way is to align with the uptrend and keeping a sl such as just below the intermediate support trendline for longs(including remaining portfolio cash longs), around 4600 cl basis to protect them. current support is seen near 4700 lvl.

icicibank is on a brkout, once it starts trading/closing above 835 can head towards 1000, while hdfc is on the verge of brkout from triangle. in line with mkt many stocks are maintaining the uptrend. need the mkt to be up or atleast stable for the stocks to perform in short to medium term.

(pls read the disclaimer)

09th sept 2009...

the reliance and hdfc stock charts as discussed earlier...

07th sept 2009...

weekly ranged, resis 4755/4970/5300 supports 4618/4527.

very near term trend is up above 4630.

if by chance anyone bought and still holding hdfc,ifci,recltd and mindtree(http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2009/06/nifty-june-24th-2009.html) may keep an eye on nifty upward direction/resistances and book at appropriate turning lvls.

hdfc is consolidating sideways in a triangle. ifci has done a brkout on upperside with tgts/resis 66/72. recltd sl 178 cl basis. mindtree resis 588/614.

mkt opening expected in positive.

nifty charts with supports and resistances...

nifty eod charts, trading in a narrow range.


nifty weekly chart, intermediate trend still intact, upper and lower range limits clearly seen, can be large move if brks out of these.

some interesting and imp stocks to watch...

would be interesting to watch the movements of stocks in coming days, some of which are illustrated below.

RELIANCE:


INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES:


TECH MAHINDRA:


HDIL:


(click images to enlarge them)

brkout in mcx gold(update)...

last time i had mentioned mcx gold would be bullish above 15000 and the tgt could be even 15600 etc.

my mcx gold chart is shown above. gold has broken out of the big ascending triangle few days ago.

the supports, resistances and sl lvls are given on the chart.

as always the chart image has to be clicked for a larger image for viewing the details.

01st sept 2009...

today's tsl 4620(closing basis) for longs initiated between 4400-4450. intraday or eod below 4620 nifty may get weak upto 4570/4520(tline). weekly support 4450. 4350 closing sl for medium to intermediate term longs.

all the sugar stocks were up yday in falling mkt and are looking attractive in near term.

market medium term roadmap...

s&p500(us) eod chart with negative divergences and support trendlines:


dow jones eod chart with negative divergences and support trendlines:


sensex weekly chart with negative divergence and support trendline:


nifty weekly chart with negative divergence and support trendline:


strong uptrend on s&p500(us) and dow jones eod charts.

uptrend also is on nifty and sensex charts.

but profit booking or correction is warranted in short to medium term to mentioned lvls/lines.

but given negative divergences appearing on all the above charts, if the trendlines are broken on downside if profit booking comes in, then the lvls upto which they may come down are also marked on the charts.


so given the above and from intraday ew counts, the medium term roadmap scenario to me looks like this. nifty may move in a fashion like correcting to 4500/4550 from 4700 odd and then moving up to around 4900 etc in the next series. similar can also be inferred from options data. 22 p/e also comes around 4900 tgt where it becomes expensive for a bear mkt rally. if nifty does a weekly brkout on upperside then tgts will be higher but i won't consider till that happens.

lets see how it goes, but any dip to support trendline holding would be a buying opportunity.

exit closing lvls for nifty...

nifty is in uptrend so pls be with the trend, looks headed toward 4700 or previous top 4731.

exit only when,
weekly closes below 4350.
daily closes below 4465.

intraday ew chart suggests still in intraday uptrend with momentum falling so caution advised for longs as price moves up towards tgt will start getting weak below 4580.

(posted today morning 09:30 am)

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(update afternoon 02:00 pm)

intraday currently looks like 5-iv under progress and last wave 5-v remains.

after that profit booking may come, and initially gets intraday bearish if comes below 4532 and stays then can become weak and come down upto 4580.

below which its into correction mode to 4500.

nifty intraday ew(update)...

3-iv and 3-v progressed on expected lines after yday 1.30 pm.

while on the charts its not weak but due to asian mkts trading with negative bias the opening may bring it down and open the expected a flat type 4th wave tgting 4595 (at most 4558 if only stays below that for sometime).

thereafter we may expect a bounce to yday high or more in a couple of days.

why i said my ew counts are speculative because iam projecting a scenario that may or may not unfold, but likely as per my study.

(posted today morning 09:22 am)

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3:15 pm update(closing bell):

excellent again. from ew views/counts nifty scenario unfolded and has moved exactly as per expectations opening down and reacting from the given lows, looks like the fifth wave is on, now caution advised at higher lvls.

exit lvl will be given in the next post.

tentative nifty intraday ew chart...

my tentative nifty spot counts till 1:30 pm on 24th aug 2009, do not trade on this as the counts are speculative.

mkt ahead 24th aug 2009...

as mentioned nifty opened weak on friday and took support again near the imp 4400 lvl to bounce back and reached our given tline resis lvl of 4538, good intraday trading opportunity.

on eod charts its still rangebound in a falling wedge shaped consolidation pattern. supports 4423 and 4348. brkout point on upperside for monday 24th aug 2009 is 4520, crossing 4538 a minor resistance is at 4558 and major ones at 4600 and 4620.

if confirmed and decisive closing basis brkout takes place from upper or lower limits(4520/4348) then tgts from this consolidation may be of magnitudes 215/266/360 points.


here's another angle: brkout from ascending triangle on intraday nifty chart.



mkt likely to open in the green.

rangeboundness!

nifty ranged between two falling tlines in last many days(refer charts posted in earlier post).

todays limits on the tlines are 4538 on upper side and 4348 on the lower side of the range.

larger range is 4300-4700.

medium to intermediate positions still long as the uptrend has not broken. fresh positional traders can initiate only on brkout from either side to avoid any whipsaw or getting sl hit, but one or two good opportunities are there for intraday each day.

opening expected weak today.

market ahead 18th aug 2009...

mentioned 4510 below which nifty is weak, 4380-88 was said as support area closing basis for medium trend.

trading closing below 4350(fut) can take it to next lvl of near 4200 etc.

today and couple of days trading is very imp what mkt is going to do next, its in short term downtrend but closed just near the very imp medium to intermediate uptrend decider lvl/tline.

the supports and resis and fibo lvls etc with negative divergences, macd and ma crossovers with volume etc are as shown in the charts below.