a reaction around 200dma..

fiis net (-738f&o+479cash=-259cr.), diis were huge sellers in cash stocks to the tune of 1125 cr!

this had a significant impact on mkt as nifty came down from a high of 3511 to low of 3354 during the day.

the uptrend is still on with trendline support as shown near 3300.

3300 looks imp and below 3300 if selling persists it can move upto 3200 closing below 3200 will be bearish as lower tline uptrend breaks.

we had mentioned about this criss cross/profit booking around 200 dma in last few posts before mkt takes a direction or reacts to come down.

fii's cashflow...

fiis daily net equity buy/sell(amount in crores.)



fiis daily f&o net buy/sell(amount in crores.):

20-mar-2009 95
23-mar-2009 502
24-mar-2009 203
26-mar-2009 147
27-mar-2009 255
30-mar-2009 -817
31-mar-2009 -1112
01-apr-2009 694
02-apr-2009 1884
06-apr-2009 154
08-apr-2009 150
09-apr-2009 864
13-apr-2009 337
15-apr-2009 187

it is well known that fii's equity cash and f&o buying or selling has an impact on the direction of mkt, since 16-18 march 2009 they have been on the buy side and mkt has been running up.

LT sma's...

50x100 sma crossover not yet, one can very clearly see how imp the crossovers between 50 sma and 100 sma as well as 100 sma and 200 sma have been in deciding the mkt direction in the past. 200 sma is considered as a decider between bull and bear mkts, but during transition between the bull and bear phases a criss cross on its both sides may happen a couple of times, e.g., during a large corrective upswing.

1000 sma is at 3673, 1200 sma at 3365 and mkt perhaps watching the nifty movement to 200 sma which is 3443 where it may get a reaction.

09th april 2009...

sensex brk out closing above nov 2008 and jan 2009 high but very near to falling resis line.



after opening low, nifty bounced back from earlier strong resis 3147 lvl now acting as support and also has just reached near the upper resis line.

06th april 2009...

there is some -ve divergence coming on nifty eod price and oscillators chart as well as strong resistances above thursday's high, so its a good idea to book some partial profits in longs. momentum is still strong and the uptrend is intact. nifty has closed above jan highs but sensex yet to cross hence a slight disconnect here between the two again. resis 3240-3250(nifty)/10946(sensex). there could be sizeable upmove if these are crossed.

the rectangle, the trend channel and the ascending triangle...

nifty and reliance tgts according to chart patterns(click on the charts images to enlarge),

the rectangle:


the trend channel:


the ascending triangle:

crouching tiger, hidden dragon?(01 april 2009)...

an inside day yday, needs to breakout for short term direction although closing above 3000 lvl the previous uptrend is still on. bulls still dared to pull up nifty so it was only a profit booking as support tline was held, but bears may come again 3147-3240 region.

short term resistance 3094/3110 strong one at 3147, support 2960-2970. unusual buying in cash by diis above 1000 cr, fiis sellers in both cash and f&o, maybe something to do with nav or financial year closing exercise.

its april fool's day so don't take anyone's trading call seriously today!

enjoy, its just a joke:)

nifty chart...

nifty faced strong resistance near 3147 on expected lines and got reacted to come down yday and tested our support trendline near 2970 but managed to close above it. for today it must close above 3000 lvl(above tline) to maintain this uptrend, else further bearishness below tline it may correct according to fibo lvls as given on the chart above.

my thoughts on nifty ew scenario...

friends, it is now still difficult to give the exact wave counts as nifty has rapidly turned up from 2600 lvls.

lets recall whats been said till now in summarised form,
1. it was said that perhaps C-5 down was running on brk below one of the earlier upwardly support tlines.
2. it was said that either 3rd pullback or an overlapping 4th within the C-5.
3. that since jan 2009, a 3 wave corrective structure is visible in the downmoves and upmoves.

now very imp, all along the nifty movement, the validation 2500 lvl was not broken closing basis for confirmation of this C-5 running(therefore chance of C-4th running or any other wave counts is still there), therefore all along C-5 running was maintained as a 'tentative'(subject to change) wave count.
nifty is still moving sideways in the same range of 2500-3200, signifying the earlier structure may not have been complete, else it would have run away too far too fast away from it(from neo theory), to start a fresh move.

iam not in favor of posting alternative counts at one time since many possibilities can be there for every move but it would land the reader in lot of confusion, we have to think and choose the most suitable one to elliott theory. again its requested not to use ew to trade derivatives on nifty or stocks, the view on internal waves can go wrong sometimes.

as some friends on vfmdirect forum were aware of some upward tgts like 3240/3490 etc getting revised by me earlier, but i had not explained the reasons for the same tgts revision, this was made due to the internal 3 wave structure in the sideways(flat)C-4th wave that made me think on the same, so this option of nifty going above 3100 toward 3240 etc was always open as 2500 lvl was not breached, so till now its not much surprising for nifty to climb up again to the higher lvls.

27 march 2009...

strong resistances 3147/3240, tline support 2930 upwards as shown on chart.
channel brkout tgt 2807+(3147-2742)=2807+(405)=3212.

resistance tline is also shown in second nifty chart, resis lvl as of today is around 3253 lvl.

24 march 2009...

overseas and domestic investors speculated the Obama administration’s plan to rid banks of toxic assets will spur the growth and stock mkts globally witnessed a huge rally. earlier reported job loss claims had also fallen, whether some turnaround is happening or just a relief rally extending.

technically huge positive div on indicators on s&p and dow are working for the rally. and yday as the support trendline on nifty did'nt brk, and asian and other mkts were strongly positive, this pushed the momentum of nifty and stocks further, so instead of profit booking near channel top, a big brkout occurred out of the short term trading range, nse eod data shows buying in cash(prov.) by both fii and dii and huge 10% short covering in nifty futures current series, 2868 taken out effortlessly once 2836 crossed, how much more to go next lvls are 2970/2989/3020 etc but best is to align with the uptrend and keep some suitable tsl for booking profits and a sl for existing long positions such as 2day low. discl:i traded profitably in banks stocks in cash in this upmove from 2600.

22 march 2009...

ew view: as mentioned many times, all along from 3147 nifty is exhibiting corrective 3 wave structure in each leg up and down, so currently it might well be in first of overlapping 4th(to be followed by 2 more sub-waves) wave of 5th terminal impulse, difficult to say. if this structure turns out right then the 5th will finish well above oct lows. but if its in 5-(3)-ii, then can challenge oct lows. but nifty still has'nt broken the 2500 lvl for confirmation of the 5th impulse.

tech view: the upward momentum was building up but 2800-2830 zone acted as strong resistance and 2868 was also not reached. last couple of days, nifty went into trading within 2836-2752 range(inside days) waiting for brkout/brkdown, but the factors such as break of upward tline for the current upmove, facing resistance near upper tline and possibly weak world mkts might set it into short term profit booking mode upto lvls mentioned on the nifty chart, if the short term range is broken on lower side.

nifty p/e investment decision making graph...

nifty p/e investment decision making graph.

The reader must be aware of ever since this blog was started i have been bringing this unique way of identifying nifty lvls for an investor.

subsequent to that as a trading alternative for medium term investors i had posted a technical analysis chart on the same.

my advance projections of nifty high of near 6400 and low of near 2340 by means of this must also be well known to the reader, the accuracy within 100-150 points is very well within acceptable limits.

(for the previous post pls refer http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/10/fresh-nifty-pe-chart.html)

the entry line and exit line for a very long term investor are shown on the graph above.

rectangular blue boxes(alongwith blue circles on p/e) show that when p/bv and div yield come closer to each other or overlap or criss-cross each other, its time to begin investment for long term.

one such chance was in oct 2008, but if nifty is to fall again too much then some projections will have to be made.

the projections for oct low were based on mkt nifty eps expectations of 234 which is now trimmed down to currently expected eps of 210.50, which may further change depending on economic situation and companies results outcome. the low if occurs again now therefore works out tentatively to be between 2136-2250 assuming nifty eps between 200-210 and bear mkt low p/e 10.68. if the expected eps or p/e's drop further then i will have to work this calculation again. we will watch for the movement of nifty p/e toward the lower blue investment line if nifty starts falling too much again, accordingly the nifty bottoming and investment entry lvls will also be known.

abhay r somkuwar.

19th march 2009...

dow(and s&p) are in a pullback in its downtrend, a previous post had warned about this showing a big and a small positive divergence on those charts, after that a reversal on nifty fut also took place and both the mkts started moving up. it was hoped that s&p might touch 805 which it nearly did and nifty also got resisted exactly on its falling resistance tline(chart given earlier). so although the momentum has picked up, the area 2800-2830-2858 is a high resistance zone therefore caution is advised for longs here. further action on US mkt may guide the nifty movement.