my latest ew update...

one of the greatest advantages of using elliott wave analysis is prediction of market direction and its likely behaviour much earlier for taking medium to long term investing/trading decisions. the flip side is due to its complicated nature one cannot be very sure if its the right count or analysis one is making and if it is terribly wrong then one can also lose a lot if proper exit lvls are not kept.

so anyone reading this ew analysis is requested to do own study and maintain own discretion.

i had expressed some doubt on B completion and opening of C down of second zigzag ABC in ABC-X-ABC formation after january 2008 in dire straits.

now looking at the degrees of waves present within the 3790-4650(4637) upmove, it does look like B is over and C is on, if this is so then recent high 4650(4637) will be the intermediate peak in short term and rally now to be used to exit long positions.

internal structure within wave C:

sub-wave C-1 has ended at 4203.55 with internal waves i,ii,iii,iv,v shown as in above chart,

C-2 upmove is on with tgt 4370-4472(a striking similarity to the tgts according to my previous post http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/08/magic-of-channels-trendlines-and-moving.html,

then C-3 will open down with a tgt 3770(taking 2 end as 4472),

then C-4 up from 3770 takes it to 4040,

then last sub-wave of C i.e C-5 opens down to tgt 3550-3606, again a striking similarity with tgts achieved by my techno-fundamentals i.e p/e chart http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2008/08/nifty-pe-chart.html.

(note: even if iam wrong in considering C is going and making projections on the downsides and by chance if B is still on, even then its limit is 4770 since B in a zigzag will not exceed 61.8% ret of A, a move above that now will call for a change in my current ew counts and will change the larger outlook on market, till then just enjoy reading)

-abhay r somkuwar.

magic of channels, trendlines and moving averages...

indicative supports and resistances on nifty chart.

if overcomes immediate resistance near 4367/98 will next face major resistance near 4470, major support currently near 4160(from spot nifty chart above).

nifty the triangle trading...

hourly chart
R1 4310 R2 4345(on triangle sides) S1 4283 S2 4250.

gold weekly chart supports and resistances...

in dire straits...

i have been discussing ABC-X-ABC type complex correction since after jan crash and given the counts on charts earlier.

Now the B of second corrective ABC seems over at 4650(having already done more than 50% retracement of A), if not then nifty must move up from here up to defy end of B and signify end of B-c-2 today and rise toward 4700 odd lvls to complete its earlier tgt else presumably B has ended and the dreaded big 5 wave C has begun.

also note the blue circles(crossovers on macd-signal) and green circles(crossovers 20-50 emas) that look ominous at this point.

sensex chart...

sensex chart, going forward sensex will be facing strong resistance on upper line of trend channel, 400 dma, and two very important fibo lvls all converging at the same place!!!

strategy: booking profits and initiating hedged shorts near these lvls when sensex reacts and comes down from there, fresh longs only above the circled area if sensex stays above the resistance area for a few days.

nifty p/e chart...

possible projected strong support seen on blue line near 15 p/e on the chart if nifty comes down. the corresponding value on spot comes to around 3550.

nifty for monday...

looks like a falling channel on intra chart of nifty, looking at very bullish US mkt close on friday nifty may open gap up on monday, chartical resistances are 4580/4607/4615 if crossed then 4650 may be reached(tgt of channel breakout i.e about 100 points).

larger picture we are still viewing as ABC-X-ABC currently the B leg (relief rally) of the second zigzag going on which has target of 61.8% retracement at 4722(15741 on sensex). interestingly the 38.2% retracement of entire correction from 6357-3790 is 4770(15835 on sensex) at which point selling may come again.

chart patterns use in intraday trading...

an example.

i am guiding and discussing intraday movement on nifty spot with fellow boarders on vfmdirect forum using live yahoo and other charts/techniques.

this is how i traded and asked to keep tsl lvls for friday as given in live chart for friday. hope readers find it useful. its pity that i booked out early and missed last brkout rally above tgt2. but had asked to keep raising tsl till 4393 spot where it got triggered giving handsome 100 odd points since 4285 for anyone who followed.

no ifs no buts no flashy s/w or techniques no costly setups no confusions but simple price following with traditional techniques(see chart).

regards.
abhay r somkuwar

using yahoo finance live chart for intraday trading...

i have illustrated with comments one of my possible strategy marked on yahoo nifty spot chart of today for intraday, it is one of several possible ways one can use to analyze and possibly trade the indices/stocks. there could be sophisticated and more accurate but costly methods/techniques available for intraday trading but this is using simple cost effective and readily available source i.e yahoo finance charts. above strategy would have fetched approx. about 75 points in spot.

abhay r somkuwar.

nifty p/e chart...

nifty currently trading at a p/e of 18.25 quite close to average p/e of 17.86 and mean p/e of 19.65 and also near to support trendline, at 15/16 p/e it becomes attractively valued and anything below that will be cheaper.

nifty long term moving averages and supports to look out for...

sensex chart...