09th august 2007

4472-4505 area is important going forward for following reasons.

1)13dma,15dma,20dma lie in band 4471-4487
2)there are 61.8% retracements of 4647.95-4267.15 and 4624.30-4267.15
3)some previous resistances are in this range and the previous supporting trendline (now a resistance line) passes through this region.

in futures,
airdeccan,educomp,idfc,itc,ivrcl,cumminsind look good for short term buy.

08th august 2007

todays tgts for nifty 4406 and 4440.
support 4350.

IT stocks to rally on RBI ECB measure to check rupee appreciation.

some relief to mkt as fed keeps rates unchanged on expected lines.

subprime worries to continue, if this was the primary reason for mkts correction, then it would resume again after few days.

rnrl(fut) sl 45 tgt 48
punj lloyd(fut) sl 288 tgt 299/305
tcs(fut) sl 1090 tgt 1110/1120.

correction started again from 22 p/e, support seen at 18.65 p/e or below that near 16.50 p/e.

we have bounced near from a very significant level 4267 on chart. in addition, it should be noted that the retracement zone of rise 3554-4647 and 3617-4647 is also at 4230-4254 . 100 and 200 dma are far much below but we could not close above 50dma which is now at 4347.59. Tomorrow if mkt trades above this then it will face minor resistances at 4357 and 4370 and then major at 4404 and 4413. immediate downside supports at 4327 and 4305.

stock ideas with positive bias for tomorrow are india cements, kotakbank, ifci, nalco and sterlite optical.

nifty long strangle would have worked very well in current market situation

1) date 26/07/2007:nifty bounced and closed 4619.80.
1 lot nifty 4700 strike call + 1 lot nifty 4600 strike put= Rs.9185
one day later heavy fall, total premium becomes Rs. 13507, a gain of Rs.4322 on strategy

2)market bounced on 31/07/2007 and closed at 4528.
1 lot nifty 4600 strike call + 1 lot nifty 4500 strike put premium= Rs.8962
next day mkt crashed heavily, total premium becomes Rs.14277, a gain of Rs.5315.

3)mkt bounced again on 03/08/2007 and closed at 4401.55.
1 lot of nifty 4500 strike call + 1 lot nifty 4400 strike put=Rs.9555.
if market falls on monday one can guess the outcome of this strategy.

If the mkt had risen instead of falling then also there would have been some gain on these strategies. These long strangles work very well in a volatile market.

All the premiums above are as per closing basis.

nifty trading levels for monday:
upside:4404/4417/4428/4435/4440/4450
downside:4400/4394/4389/4378/4366/4355/4345/4340/4327/4300
market is in downswing as such, in case of a big gap down opening,
4345(50dma),4157(100dma),4038(200dma), as mentioned earlier 4230/4250 are 38.2% retracement levels of 3554/3617-4647 should act as supports.

one tgt i mentioned earlier 4057 i want to stick to that for present downfall.

nearly half the turnover and half the short positions of yesterday carried today were short covered, since volumes were less and market came down toward the end, the pullback today seemed to be lacking conviction, even 4400 seemed to be too much to be overtaken. The nifty futures dicount has come down to 38 points. 50 dma support comes in at 4342. If global markets are firm tomorrow a strong opening above 4363 and then 4404 should be taken off followed by 4419. levels above 4419 are 4425/4440/4450, immediate supports 4339/4327/4300.

ivrcl first target met, second at 305 awaited

mtnl target met

nifty resistances 4385,4404,4412,4419.

sci target reached perfectly today, datewise and pricewise.

02 august 2007

first lvl iam watching is 4338(50sma),4300(monthly support) then 4230-54(38.2%rets of rise from 3617-4647 and 4554-4647), then 4100.

if this correction is big enough, i have a target of 4057 for this in coming 4-5 days.

31st july 2007

the low of this downswing i.e 4404 is axactly 23.6% ret of the upmove from 3617-4647.85.

the breakout above 4493 was significant and the short term uptrend has begun, but nifty could not reach 13sma which is at 4539. now coming to tomorrow, nifty is likely to encounter selling in zone 4550-60, so whether this is a fresh upmove or just a bounce of the original fall from 4647.85 will be confirmed on close above 4560. downside supports are at 4504,4496,4484.