ab tak...

Rupee falls below 56('chappan' in hindi) to a dollar in today's trade crossing 55.55 and tgting lifetime spiked lows below 57 as given before !

'ab tak chappan'(hindi movie) means 56( encounters) till now...thats how much the rupee got hunted down to by the US dollar.

nifty p/e graph...23rd May 2012...

my nifty p/e graph is as shown below with various tgt lvls on both the downside(supports for investing) as well as upperside(resis for exiting mkt) as per different investment time frames based upon its current and latest earnings picture. figures depicted are subject to change with any change in mkt scenario.

lvls marked with squares are for long term.

opinions/views/figures expressed are for illustration purposes only and are not an express recommendation to buy or sell. as such the author hold no responsibilty for any actual loss arising out of any trading/invstmnts acting solely based upon the same.

mkt ahead...18th May 2012...

(continued/updtd from last post)

also i feel spot nifty is oversold and its a matter of time (max 10-15) days that it may begin its pullback toward 5200 lvl if 5080 is crossed. thereon it needs to be seen how it goes.


while the US mkt indices like Dow are likely to witness continuation of profit booking which may lead to good amount of correction and if that happens then nifty's pullback too may be short lived.

the historical spiked spot lows/tgts on Rupee are 55.55 and 57.80 per dollar respectively and there may be an attempt to test these lvls again (before it pullbacks) if there is no intervention by the central bank since now its in a free fall zone say above 54.46.

current near term nifty support is seen near 4790-4800 on spot as seen on eod chart posted previously.

nifty_mkt ahead 17th May 2012...

contrary to what most analysts saying on business channels that Rupee will weaken much more and go toward 58 and then 67 vs dollar and stock mkt is still in bear mkt and will plunge deep, when i studied the charts of ruppee-dollar futures as well as spot nifty  found that there is a nice negative divergence developing on this glorious upmove of $ on daily futures continous charts and yday it approached the resis lvl of earlier highs too and closed just shade below it(some upmove may still be left but only for short term) so if profit booking is there in currency(rupee-dollar) it could easily lead to a sharp downmove which would be good for stock mkts(mcx and brent nymex crude is already correcting).

also i feel spot nifty is oversold and its a matter of time (max 10-15) days that it may begin its pullback toward 5200 lvl if 5080 is crossed. thereon it needs to be seen how it goes.

while the US mkt indices like Dow are likely to witness continuation of profit booking which may lead to good amount of correction and if that happens then nifty's pullback too may be short lived.

the historical spiked spot lows/tgts on Rupee are 55.55 and 57.80 per dollar respectively and there may be an attempt to test these lvls again (before it pullbacks) if there is no intervention by the central bank since now its in a free fall zone say above 54.46.

current near term nifty support is seen near 4790-4800 on spot as seen on eod chart posted previously.

nifty chart(weekly)...07th May 2012...

chart showing nifty spot prev breakout from weekly tline/tchannel and likely coming support zone.

roadmap for nifty

rampant continued selling on last friday after opening weakness was quite surprising as nifty could'nt hold the previous lows, the slide continued below 5100 ultimately making low on an imp support lvl near 5070 as shown on chart. some short-lived bounce may be expected from this lvl.

nifty likely roadmap for coming days/weeks with various possibilities Cases 1a-b's and 2a-b's as shown on the following eod nifty spot chart.

chart is self explanatory.

mkt view...30th Jan 2012...

with lowering of CRR had an overwhelming response on mkt with money flowing in, in Jan and Feb 2012 we saw it gaining almost 1100 points from the lows of  about 4550. this also led to breakout on long term charts above the crucial 5200 lvls and imp lvl that was also a resis on falling weekly trendline from the top of 6338. thereafter bad news from govt side policy indecisions mild budget etc has led to profit booking from fiis and diis alternately and created a confusing trading environment on day to day or even short to medium basis.

eventhough RBI has recently reduced repo rate by unexpected 50 basis points mkt was not enthused in its response, instead we saw hammering of the bank stocks.

April month is ending today it is imp for nifty to save the crucial 5159 monthly breakdown lvl at the same time to gain atleast 12-13 more points today to close month above 5222. since the trading range is getting narrower and narrower some breakout/ breakdown can happen soon, for it to happen on upperside(in current uptrend) it is good for it to give a brkout above 5267 May end which will bring momentum in the mkt and new investment for longer term. new Banking laws amendments, fuel policy reforms, steps toward reducing current account deficit. fiscal consolidation, full clarity on GAAR etc(till 8th May), fall in inflation, further RBI interest rate reduction and better quarterly results will hold the key on positive side.

view on market...30th jan 2012...

dear readers,

welcome to the new year 2012 !!! I am posting this after a long long time. Since we were/are still in bear mkt therefore very few postings were made as blog largely put views for positional and long term investors that are on buy side. iam sorry for the inconvenience caused to devoted blog followers,well-wishers and friends because of the delay.

posting an old nifty chart of mine updated for recent moves. nifty has reached the weekly downtrend channel upper trendline again after respecting the 4700 lvl largely falling slightly below it for a brief period of time and bouncing on RBI governor's hint at peaking of interest rates and followed by crr cut more recently. a reaction at this point at upper end would be a natural profit booking of the glorious 10% rally on nifty. even though nifty remained in longer term downtrend, stocks were earlier mercilessly beaten down which in last month's rally have seen good buying by FII's and others and as such are looking good for a long term investment buy. however one should wait for the mkt to turn to long term bullishness too, else it would be just a trading kind of move.

near and short term resistance as seen from above chart is 5200 spot. short term support is near/above 5000.

(to be updated)