wishing you and your family a very happy and prosperous new year, may you be blessed with good health and profitable trading/investing in the years to come .
 |
| RSS blog feed url: http://feeds.feedburner.com/Valuetrading |
Monday, December 31, 2007
market today and in coming days...
for monday the range i see is 6055-6115 and broader one as 5985-6205 in coming days.
any price volumes breakout closing above 6110.85 means facing resistance at previous high 6185 a possibility open for 510 points from 6110.85, but below 5945 can take it to 5780.
positional sl cl basis 5960.
positional stocks to watch abb, rel.
many leading stocks are showing interesting developments on charts, once they breakout/breakdown some of them i'll try to give here with possible targets.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
latest update on my ew count...
there are indications of confirmation of alternate wave count as the right one and wave iii of V-5th is proceeding.
the probable tgt for V-5th wave is 6488/7163.
stocks to watch...
ydays stocks to watch cairn, tatapower, polaris also performed very well.
stocks to watch on buy side for intraday of 2-3 days: l&t, tatasteel, hindalco, nalco, bhel, tatamotors, suzlon, hul, bankbaroda, axisbank, rel, patni.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
a merry christmas...
wishing all a merry christmas and a happy and prosperous new year 2008.
jingle bells, jingle all the way.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
my updated alternate ew counts...
most ew analysts have gone wrong recently while giving ew counts.
wave counts had to be modified by me after ydays correction after giving some thought.
wave i is in the shape of rising wedge(triangle) and
most probably wave ii down is now completed,
we are now awaiting wave iii to go up, if this wave count is correct.
till then we treat it as an alternate wave count.
tgts to be given later on confirmation.
18/12/2007.
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
wwil-a technical analysis case study...
many friends had asked for some guidance on studying charts and ta hence posting here such a study for benefit of all.
wwil chart and accompanying commentary is self explanatory.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Thursday, November 29, 2007
update on my ew analysis...
for internal structure wise of 4th(i.e A-B-C) together the time was about 20 days, but for V-4th flat corrective the time for completion is between 16-32 days and so far it has been correcting for 19 days.
as has been written earlier about this 4th wave, both A and B have completed and C is now going on, both A and B were zigzags internally containing 3 sub-waves a,b,c each.
about the C sub-waves:
as has been written earlier, the pattern for correction of C can be downward or sideways but the structure will most probably contain 5 sub-waves in a shape of ending diagonal(triangular) or impulsive, the 3rd sub-wave of C is now going on. if the C is an ED, then each next sub-waves 3,4,5 will be smaller and smaller than its earlier sub-wave but in case of impulsive structure 3 is likely to be the largest of the subwaves and hence if the C correction turns out to be impulsive then only a big fall nearing 5030 can be expected and not the given tgts. at the moment we are watching for earlier tgts and structure. the picture will get clearer going forward.
total magnitude/tgts have already been given in earlier updates on ew, though the actuals may vary.
as has been written earlier about this 4th wave, both A and B have completed and C is now going on, both A and B were zigzags internally containing 3 sub-waves a,b,c each.
about the C sub-waves:
as has been written earlier, the pattern for correction of C can be downward or sideways but the structure will most probably contain 5 sub-waves in a shape of ending diagonal(triangular) or impulsive, the 3rd sub-wave of C is now going on. if the C is an ED, then each next sub-waves 3,4,5 will be smaller and smaller than its earlier sub-wave but in case of impulsive structure 3 is likely to be the largest of the subwaves and hence if the C correction turns out to be impulsive then only a big fall nearing 5030 can be expected and not the given tgts. at the moment we are watching for earlier tgts and structure. the picture will get clearer going forward.
total magnitude/tgts have already been given in earlier updates on ew, though the actuals may vary.
disclaimer: no ew softwares have ever been used for this analysis, iam doing it only by manual calculations/estimation.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Friday, November 23, 2007
update on my ew analysis...
total time estimated initially for flat corrective wave V4 completion was 16 days.
B had retraced exactly 95% of wave A.
C wave probable tgt was 5321 and today it came near it correction maybe mostly complete, the correction if it is still pending, then the next probable max tgts on downside would be 5263/5147/5117.
this is according to ew theory.
B had retraced exactly 95% of wave A.
C wave probable tgt was 5321 and today it came near it correction maybe mostly complete, the correction if it is still pending, then the next probable max tgts on downside would be 5263/5147/5117.
this is according to ew theory.
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
latest update on my ew analysis...
earlier i had assumed wave 4 of V as a flat corrective and everything going as per my prediction so far hence haven't changed the wave counts.
currently the larger C of 4th downwave is proceeding. wave A and wave B both were zigzags and C could be an impulsive structure or an ending diagonal and as such would be diffult to trade and picture will be clearer as it progresses hence general trend is to be followed. the C could terminate closer to previous low of A.
i estimate the time for completion of this correction in coming 3-8 days.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
my ew analysis chart...
none of the counts/magnitudes being changed since last time, posting just the updated chart.
Monday, November 19, 2007
sensex and nifty yearly charts...
sensex and nifty yearly(all spot prices) charts with projections of future lvls.
Monday, November 5, 2007
update on my ew analysis...
depending on mkt behaviour, some wave counts/magnitudes may be modified going forward, when necessary.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
sensex yearly chart...
sensex yearly chart, this year it should atleast close somewhere near/above 17000, next year low on the lower end of the channel on the chart is somewhere near 17000 for a tgt of more of than 28000 on upper end of the channel.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
latest on my ew analysis...its a bulls eye again...
previous posts
in the above post, i had given the wave iii-(iii) tgt as 5771 and actually it did go to 5736.
then it was given that wave iii-(iv) will go down 700 points i.e. 5071 and it actually went down to 5070.90!!!.
again it was given that wave iii-(v) will go up from there with a tgt of 6223 and so far it has achieved a high of 5976.
my above ew analysis has been extremely accurate till now, lets watch for further wave developments.
Friday, October 26, 2007
Sunday, October 21, 2007
nifty and sensex major trendlines...
for sensex, the support is near 14100 for this month and 14600 for next month on the trendline(its not a channel).both the charts are on log scale.
for nifty, the support is near 4100 this month and 4200 next month on the lower trendline.
just add one more vertical line for the december month in the sensex monthly chart above and hurray the upper tgt for 2007 comes exactly as 20000!!!
hence, i have drawn the above chart and trendlines correctly.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
nifty for friday, 19th oct 2007...
medium term trend is broken by a small margin today by nifty and such a situation is bearish however a couple of closings in the red will confirm this. but bounce on good news is possible.
immediate resistances 5429/5453/5525.
supports 5269/5107/5000/4930/4530
fiis were net sellers in cash again today to the order of Rs.1130 crores and diis bought in very small amounts in cash(provisional figures).
in f&o segment high turnover of Rs.110563.83 crores was recorded. fiis sold net Rs.4221.90 crores. it is known that the fiis have a very large impact upon the direction of indian stock mkts. nifty future traded at a huge 32 point discount to spot adjusted at close and at one time was as high as 151 points, an indication of large amount of shorts being built up in nifty futures.
further update on my ew count...
yday i had assumed wave v to start from the low of 5107.30 . this is still in reckoning as long as the low of 5107.30 is not broken in coming days and upward rally begins.
however, i have an alternative wave count looking at todays movement.
in this i have assumed wave iv has not ended and is currently undergoing a complex flat type of correction. as such, the downside is only upto 5100 to 5045 according to it.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
latest update on my ew count...
i would say i made a perfect ew count. refer nifty ew chart below. today the wave iv made low of 5107.30 down 600 points from recent high of 5708.35. i had projected a downmove of about nearly 700 points earlier.
i assume wave v has now started from 5107.30 with a tgt of 6200. but for confirmation it has to cross and close above 5708.35.
positional shorts should not be initiated at this stage, buy on dips is a better strategy in view of the above wave count observation..
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Monday, October 15, 2007
bulls eye...
as mentioned earlier, my technical lvl was 5680/5682, and nifty made a high today exactly at this lvl.
a long white bullish candle with nearly no shadows is formed.
tomorrows nifty support is at 5590/5525/5344.
if 5682 is taken out on the upside, then the next resistance is at 5727/5771/5800.
buy tcs call option strike 1100 or 1200 for 50% gain in 2-3 days. or tcs fut buy at cmp or above 1077 for tgt1 1090 tgt2 1105 sl 1074.
buy indiacem 320 strike call option near cmp.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
nifty for monday...
a bearish engulfing candle was formed on friday closing but its not a reversal pattern as yet. strong short term trendline support is at 5300. though the rsi is showing some -ve divergence, it is also testing its support trendline and these is a chance of it bouncing back.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
nifty for today...
for 09th oct 2007
(all spot prices)
pivot 5120.
for longs closing basis sl 4990 resistance 5211/5260/5300.
nifty becomes weak short if closes today below 4990 for 4900.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Saturday, October 6, 2007
market in coming days...
nifty closed below short term trendline yday.
5300 and 18045/18271 are the logical tgts for nifty and sensex respectively.
sensex has already achieved a significant tgt of exactly 17976 yday.
so far it closes above 17721 i think again there's a chance of sensex achieving 18045.
nifty if stays above 5200 can rally upto 5300 if global cues are bullish.
after that any deep correction should last upto 16500 or max 16000.
Friday, October 5, 2007
nifty for monday 08th oct 2007...
pivot 5199.63.
above 5200(short term trendline as well as pivot) the lvl is 5300.
but today nifty has closed below short term trendline, an indication of bearishness in immediate term. if the weakness continues, it can slide further upto 5000, hence caution at current lvls is advised.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
nifty for 5th oct 2007...
due to some technical problems in the blog, some of the features on this blog will not get updated for some time. inconvenience caused is regretted.
nifty pivot for tomorrow 5189.26.
resistance 5205/5209/5233/5261
trendline supports 5150/5000/4900.
short nifty if closes below 5150.
other imp support 4940.
sl for positional longs 4849.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
my feeling is the sensex may get resisted around 18000. from my observation(see the chart) the sensex makes steps of 2000. from 16000 it came down to 14000 then went up to 16000 spent some time there then went fast toward 18000. hence if a correction comes now it may last upto 16000. then the next upward tgt will be toward 20000.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Monday, October 1, 2007
nifty today...
for 3rd oct 2007
(all spot prices)
short term trendline support 5000 closing basis.
medium term trendline supports 4740/4670
200 dma 4169.
other strong support 4940.
fibonacci 38.2% retracement(4445 to 5089) 4843.
pivot for wednesday 5053.
trend change sl positional 4792.
intraday resistances 5089/5098/5110/5145, support 5050/5000.
in short, 5145-5110-5098-5050-5000-4940-4840-4792-4740-4670.
calls for today...
fut.(strictly intraday)
sbin buy above 1974 tgt1 1984 tgt2 2010 sl 1970
pantaloonr buy above 548 for tgt1 555 tgt2 560 sl 543
maruti buy above 1008 tgt1 1033 tgt2 1050 sl 1000
unitech sell below 310 tgt1 304 tgt2 299 sl 312.50
litl sell below 348 tgt1 342 tgt2 334 sl 356.50
trade any of these according to mkt direction near cmp or sl, u may also buy call or put options instead of futures.
follow-up on these calls
sbin sl hit, a loss of 4 points, stock coming down on news of no sbi rights issue.
pantaloonr above 548 stock touched a high of 581.80 and closed at 578.50, a gain of 30 points.
maruti stock came down on not so good sep vehicle sales figures hitting sl, a minor loss of 8 points.
unitech call not initiated as stock never came to below 310.
litl early morning the stock could reach upto 343.50 then reversed upward.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
my fundamental price target for some select stocks for fy 2008...
company name, ***price(Rs.) after one year
ABB 1816
ACC 1193
ABIRLANUVO 1628
AMBUJACEM 142
ASHOKLEY 51
ASIANPAINT 1152
BAJAJAUTO 2942
BAJAJHIND 327
BALRAMCHIN 127
BANKBARODA 394
BANKINDIA 328
BEL 2131
BHARATFORG 393
BHEL 2429
BPCL 392
CANBK 312
CENTURYTEX 924
CIPLA 215
COLGATE 467
CROMPGREAV 472
CUMMINSIND 556
DABUR 125
DRREDDY 510
FINANTECH 3525
GAIL 392
GLAXO 1286
GLENMARK 531
GRASIM 3911
HCLTECH 358
HDFCBANK 1841
HEROHONDA 838
HINDALCO 160
HINDUNILVR 253
HINDPETRO 303
HINDZINC 754
HDFC 2989
ICICIBANK 1314
ITC 212
I-FLEX 2439
INDIACEM 258
INDIABULLS 895
INDHOTEL 181
IOC 582
IPCL 416
IDBI 190
INFOSYSTCH 2362
IDFC 168
JSWSTEEL 1013
JPASSOCIAT 1325
KOTAKBANK 1100
LT 3588
MTNL 161
M&M 850
GESCOCORP 1405
MARUTI 1145
MATRIXLABS 194
NATIONALUM 264
ONGC 1007
ORIENTBANK 269
PATNI 546
PUNJLLOYD 547
PNB 651
RANBAXY 526
RELCAPITAL 2346
RCOM 785
REL 1288
RELIANCE 2596
SATYAMCOMP 545
SESAGOA 2614
SIEMENS 1963
SBIN 2250
SAIL 241
STER 717
SUNPHARMA 1200
SUZLON 2159
TATACHEM 364
TCS 1331
TATAMOTORS 888
TATAPOWER 893
TATASTEEL 886
TATATEA 857
TITAN 1934
AXISBANK 928
ULTRACEMCO 1114
UNIONBANK 193
UNITECH 563
UNIPHOS 548
VSNL 497
WIPRO 563
ZEEL 457
***at current valuations
ABB 1816
ACC 1193
ABIRLANUVO 1628
AMBUJACEM 142
ASHOKLEY 51
ASIANPAINT 1152
BAJAJAUTO 2942
BAJAJHIND 327
BALRAMCHIN 127
BANKBARODA 394
BANKINDIA 328
BEL 2131
BHARATFORG 393
BHEL 2429
BPCL 392
CANBK 312
CENTURYTEX 924
CIPLA 215
COLGATE 467
CROMPGREAV 472
CUMMINSIND 556
DABUR 125
DRREDDY 510
FINANTECH 3525
GAIL 392
GLAXO 1286
GLENMARK 531
GRASIM 3911
HCLTECH 358
HDFCBANK 1841
HEROHONDA 838
HINDALCO 160
HINDUNILVR 253
HINDPETRO 303
HINDZINC 754
HDFC 2989
ICICIBANK 1314
ITC 212
I-FLEX 2439
INDIACEM 258
INDIABULLS 895
INDHOTEL 181
IOC 582
IPCL 416
IDBI 190
INFOSYSTCH 2362
IDFC 168
JSWSTEEL 1013
JPASSOCIAT 1325
KOTAKBANK 1100
LT 3588
MTNL 161
M&M 850
GESCOCORP 1405
MARUTI 1145
MATRIXLABS 194
NATIONALUM 264
ONGC 1007
ORIENTBANK 269
PATNI 546
PUNJLLOYD 547
PNB 651
RANBAXY 526
RELCAPITAL 2346
RCOM 785
REL 1288
RELIANCE 2596
SATYAMCOMP 545
SESAGOA 2614
SIEMENS 1963
SBIN 2250
SAIL 241
STER 717
SUNPHARMA 1200
SUZLON 2159
TATACHEM 364
TCS 1331
TATAMOTORS 888
TATAPOWER 893
TATASTEEL 886
TATATEA 857
TITAN 1934
AXISBANK 928
ULTRACEMCO 1114
UNIONBANK 193
UNITECH 563
UNIPHOS 548
VSNL 497
WIPRO 563
ZEEL 457
***at current valuations
Friday, September 28, 2007
what a coincidence...
yday technical analyst Mr. Anil Maghnani said on media that nifty could correct from 5095 and sensex from 17330 and Mr. Ashwani Gujral said in a day or two maybe next week we could see correction upto 4700.
i had also arrived at same lvls few days ago by my analysis.
lets see whether reaction comes near these lvls or mkt rallies further without correcting.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
update on my ew analysis...
no wave counts changed till now.
as mentioned earlier, the V-3-iii is in full speed which may terminate near 5095. likewise V-3-iii on sensex might terminate near 17332. at present iam sticking to this assumption.
after iii is reached we can have a correction which may last upto 4678.
then a rise from there, which after crossing top of iii, might target 5461 (broader V target) or 5771 (V-3-v) target. This is the final target of the nifty for the multi-year bull run.
likewise sensex may correct from 17332 to 15975. then a rise from there which after crossing top of iii, might target 19528. This is the final target of the sensex for the multi-year bull run.
this completion can happen by this year end (2007), at the earliest, or upto april 2008.
the completion will be followed by a big correction upto minimum 4366.70 or 4558 or maximum 3726 or 3918 depending upon final target of V and whether that correction will be of wave V only starting at 2595.65 or the complete super cycle I-II-III-IV-V starting at 920.
there will a fresh bull run to begin after that.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
if ttml closes above 43, it has good chance of reaching 52.55 in near term.
in the morning i had given some hints(later removed) on shorting rel, rnrl and rpl.
icicibank stock has given breakout, it is overbought but it can be bought with trading cl sl 1010 for tgt 1052/1100/1135 .
buy techm(cl sl 1298) and hcltech(cl sl 286) at cmp for very short term cash delivery.
Monday, September 24, 2007
nifty support and resistance lines...
nifty support and resistance lines.
thick blue line resistance coming up at 4951 for 25th sep 2007.
if a correction starts from 4951, initial support is near 4840 and good supports will come in the zone 4588 to 4771.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
update on my ew analysis...
then a correction upto 4650 [ i.e iii-(iv) ]
and then the iii-(v) going up.
my possible upside target for V-3-iii-(v) i.e completion of the iii,
when,
the V-3-iii assumes equality with V-3-i wave at 5095.65.
corresponding V-3-iii on sensex chart assumes equality to V-3-i at 17332.60.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
its bulls eye again...
please refer to my technical lvls given on 19th sep 2007 for nifty, what the last lvl says??? click here
4856!!!
Accurate!!!
thats the high(4855.70) made on 21st sep by nifty.
once again right on target.
update on my ew count...
the wave(ii) has ended at 4482 and (iii) is in progress and is in rapid rise since it broke from top of (i), there is no change in my previous wave structure( read here http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2007_09_05_archive.html and here http://valuetrading.blogspot.com/2007_09_08_archive.html).
Friday, September 21, 2007
feedback on my calls
its 1:30 pm now and mkt is still trading.
these calls were given yday evening.
HUGE profits for someone having bought my rpl futures call, given to buy at 140 where it stayed for long time today in morning, now it is 157, a whopping profit of rs. 56950/- on just one lot of rpl for those bought.
even rpl 145 strike option call went up from rs.1.50 in morning to rs.14 premium now.
tatapower fut also went upto 785.
gail fut earlier had reached t1 at 334.35.
two days ago i mentioned about dlf 700 strike call option which yesterday went from 20 to 75 in just one day from the time it was given on vfm forum.
all technical content on this blog other than news and nasdaq quotes are analysed and posted by myself only.
comments are welcome.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
intraday calls for today
on my charts, the dow jones has resistance near 14000, nifty has resistance near 4800 and sensex has resistance near 16550.
(fut.)
tatapower buy above cmp for t1 790 t2 799 sl 770
rpl buy above cmp for t1 142 t2 145 sl 137.50
gail sell below cmp for t1 334 t2 329 sl 344
trade in direction of mkt near the previous closing price or sl.
my simple translation(summary) of vivek patil's EW technical analysis
vivek patil has mixed his earlier views and many alternate scenarios hence it appears jumbled up, but lets see the summary only, i have tried to simplify as much as possible and keep any mistakes in understanding to a minimum.
so first of all let us consider the big picture of this wave analysis, this would make things a bit simpler.
as we all know in a bull phase the upward waves are impulsive in nature consisting of 3 upward and 2 downward correctives, the pattern completes with corrective phase of 2 downward and one upward wave giving a 5+3 combination.
so the bigger picture starts somewhere before 1984 when first super cycle wave 1 began, the third super cycle wave started in 1983 upward with a time period of 11.5 years to complete in 1994 and in 1995 the corrective wave 4th super cycle wave developed and completed in 2005. he has mentioned various fibonacci ratios on the waves magnitudes and their sub waves to support the given structure. he also says the 4th super cycle wave had a combination of flat+extracting triangle+running triangle formation inside its pattern formation.
the 5th wave
============
He says therefore we are in the 5th super cycle wave now starting from 2005 beginning from 7656. the 5th super cycle degree wave has target of 20000 and beyond and time period he now gives it as 3 to 5 years from october 2005(i.e. betwen year 2008-2010) for the completion of this 5th wave.
as stated above regarding presence of running triangle inside the 4th super cycle degree wave, beacuse of this the 5th super cycle degree wave will get the needed thrust needed to achieve the target of 20000 and perhaps more.
the 5th wave scenarios
======================
scenario 1)
5th super cycle degree wave to end at 13300:bearish scenario.
magnitude of the first of the 5th super cycle should be not more than 13300 or a ratio of 0.618 to that of the 3rd super cycle wave, considering the 3rd super cycle wave wave as the extended wave because the 3rd super cycle degree wave is exactly 2.681 times the first super cycle degree wave.
scenario 2)
5th super cycle degree wave to go beyond 13300: alternate to the above bearish scenario.
he has mentioned an alternative bearish scenario for the 5th wave different from above in which the 5th wave assumes a diametric formation in the form of a running bow-tie diametric formation beginning 2003 having a complex structure of 7 legs from 'a' to 'g', various fibonacci ratios have proved the relationship between various legs of the diametric in terms of magnitudes and time taken for completion.
the target for leg 'g' within the diametric is 18000 plus(when it equals 'a') and last week's sensex high of 15868 the 'g' leg has become exactly 0.618 times to the 'a' leg of the diametric on weekly chart on the log scale.
1st of the 5th super super cycle degree wave may develop as zig zag instead of a diametric formation. he also says that this 1st within the fifth could also form as a large x .
so far the sensex stays above 13300, the bullishness will remain.
hence 13300 is a crucial wave-count decider between the bearish scenario and the alternate bearish scenario.
===============================================
he has termed the fall from 15868 as double combination of flat plus running triangle which should test gap of 14584-14964. The fall ended as vertical followed by sudden stop and reverse at 13779 which he terms as waterfall effect.
He says we are into running triangle and correction may get over above 80% retracement of total fall(15485) else the correction continues. But he also says the legs of the running triangle may not end at 14485 and sensex may rally further up.
He says we are moving into narrow channel after completion of waterfall effect, fridays high has touched upper line of this channel.
He says a movement beyond 15069 confirms bottom of 13779 may not be tested again.
He says the total fall ending 13779 has a corrective(3 wave) structure and not impulsive(5 wave structure).
he says earlier 12315 is yearly sensex support.
he says 13300 is good for maintaining long term bullish wave structure.
he says sensex must remain above 17000 this year end so that bullish possibilities of 20000+ remain open in coming years else sideways correction.
he says 18000 is achievable this year.
===================================
regarding fibonacci time clusters:
earlier regarding fibonacci time clusters he says august month period was close to some fibonacci time clusters, means a lot of fibonacci based time periods on monthly chart were forming that month and when such a phenomenon occurs it is followed by a major event, such as a long lasting correction.
(following is the latest development i.e update)
the jinx:
acc to him, since last october beginning from 12316 there is an interesting pattern on sensex chart, a rise of nearly 2000 points followed by deep correction. This has already happened 4 times and the current rally from 13779 to 15824 is 2045 points which could be the 5th time occurrance. This phenomenon is what he had called as a jinx and had said maybe this time also sensex would top out around these levels.
last week:
weekly close was flat and sensex had tested low of 15350 during the week which now becomes crucial level for the 2000 point phenomenon to happen or not. if 15350 is broken then support are 15069 and 14570. Below this some panic will set in. when this correction gets over, another 2000 point phenomenon may be possible.
he says last week the 30 minute sensex chart showed development of a triangle pattern and a breakout from the triangular pattern had target equal to the height of the triangle, then there was a correction which is testing the apex or corner of the triangular pattern(as friday's low point).
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
upside target levels for stocks
short to medium term upside trading targets (all spot prices)
nifty 4648/4674/4701/4746/4823/4856
sensex 16212/16231/16278/16403/16437/16657/16908/17114/17160
reliance 2076/85/2105/2113/2160/2267/2283
sbin 1708/1734/1752/1763/1823/1886/1937
l&t 2650/2663/2680/2700/2713/2719/2758/2805/2831/2870
rel 937/972/985/1003
relcapital 1517/1561
rnrl 52/54/55.40/56.60/57.40
hdfc 2250/2294/2285/2328/2347/2356
tatasteel 725/732/738/746/752/762/766/788
sail 175/177/179.50/181.30/186.20/187/188.50
dlf 730/748/796/817/984
rpl 136.50/140/143
rcom 573/577/580/585/592/597/608/613/620/635
rnrl 52/54/55.30/56.60/57.40
ifci 81/85/86/88.30/90/93/94
idbi 141/142/144.50/147.50/150.80/153.83/158.80
idfc 138.90/141.60/143.70/145/146.40/147.40/149.60
petronet 75/76/82/86
stocks and their trends(31st dec. update)
my fundamental targets for fy 2008 (last update oct 2007)
my technical trading targets 2007
intra/closing spot lvls for day and positional trading...
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
our portfolio is a diversified mix of long term and short to medium term stocks holdings in 70:20 ratio, which can be altered to 60:30, with balance 10% kept in cash. The portfolio is valued over 10 lacs with every stock in excess of gains of 30% atleast. The aim is to appreciate this to 150% to 200% in value in a year which is very much possible by my technique.
i have my own safe method developed for analysing attractive stocks for buying in very short to medium term that give very good returns in uptrending market.
iam also comfortable in giving calls/ideas for futures as well as options and sometimes trade in nifty and select stocks.
i created this blog for expression of my ideas regarding such short term investment/trading stocks hence the term 'valuetrading' apart from my outlook from technical point of view on indian and world stock market. For short/medium delivery picks i will just give an entry price and later on the exit price, there will no stoplosses unless otherwise mentioned. This feature will not be daily but as and when i feel comfortable.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
dow jones industrial average chart...
dow jones chart is looking bearish. everything on the chart is self explanatory. notice the pink circle specially
Saturday, September 8, 2007
08th sep 2007 update on my elliot wave count
so as per my expectation the subwave iii-(i) most possibly terminated at 4547.75 and iii-(ii) has opened down. this can go down upto 4339.35 or 4210.60 after which upward wave iii-(iii) will open up targeting atleast 4884.90(max 5222.05) or 4756.15(max 5093) depending upon the degree of correction of of iii-(ii).
so it is advised to buy attractive stocks on declines in the current downmove.
at present iam ruling out 4000 or even 4100 following the given wave structure, as need arises the stucture will have to be changed for changed scenario as of now it is kept intact by me.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
calls for yday zooming, no sl were hit
litl futures(given buy above 299) today closed 305.85 remain long with tsl of 298 t1 311 t2 316
rel futures(given buy above 830) today closed 865.50 remain long with tsl of 853 t1 870 t2 881
shipping corp(given buy above 196) futures closed 203.70 remain long with tsl 195 t1 209 t2 213
litl high was 309.95 so returns are Rs.9307, closing basis returns Rs. 5822.
rel high was 869.90 so returns are 21945, closing basis returns Rs. 19525.
shipping corp high was 207.70 so returns are Rs18200, closing basis returns Rs.12320.
all these in just 2 days of trading.
there were atleast 1-2 opportunities during the day to buy at the recommended price on 5th sep 2007.
all calls rocking.
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
my elliot wave count
updated upto the 6th of sep 2007
the 3rd major of the 5th primary wave is on.
counts:
primary cycle:
wave I: 920-2014.65
wave II: 2014.65-1292,20
wave II:1292.20-3774.15
wave IV:3774.15-2595.65
wave V:2595.65-???
inside primary wave V:
major cycle:
wave 1:2595.65-4245.30
wave 2:4245.30-3554.50
wave 3:3554.50-???
inside major cycle 3:
wave i:3554.50-4647.95
wave ii:4647.95-4002.20
wave iii:4002.20-???
do not remain short in the mkt as we are in the major 3rd (impulse) wave of primary 5th wave. The target for primary 5th wave i had calculated and posted on http://www.moneycontrol.com/ one year ago, the primary 5th wave should have terminated either at 4367 or near 5461. The target for major cycle 3 is coming to atleast 5200.
mkt had earlier reacted and come down after touching near 4367, just 4 points short.
the tgt for the upmove of the major wave 3-i, i have been posting on vfmdirect messageboard, which i had calculated at 4672. As u can see the 3-i wave actually terminated nearby at 4647.95 just 22 points short.
counts:
primary cycle:
wave I: 920-2014.65
wave II: 2014.65-1292,20
wave II:1292.20-3774.15
wave IV:3774.15-2595.65
wave V:2595.65-???
inside primary wave V:
major cycle:
wave 1:2595.65-4245.30
wave 2:4245.30-3554.50
wave 3:3554.50-???
inside major cycle 3:
wave i:3554.50-4647.95
wave ii:4647.95-4002.20
wave iii:4002.20-???
do not remain short in the mkt as we are in the major 3rd (impulse) wave of primary 5th wave. The target for primary 5th wave i had calculated and posted on http://www.moneycontrol.com/ one year ago, the primary 5th wave should have terminated either at 4367 or near 5461. The target for major cycle 3 is coming to atleast 5200.
mkt had earlier reacted and come down after touching near 4367, just 4 points short.
the tgt for the upmove of the major wave 3-i, i have been posting on vfmdirect messageboard, which i had calculated at 4672. As u can see the 3-i wave actually terminated nearby at 4647.95 just 22 points short.
currently i think most probably we are near to complete V-5-3-iii-(i) and V-5-3-iii-(ii) will open down, confirmation awaited (see chart).
confirmation of wave iii (and also sub-wave iii-(iii)) is crossing the top of 4647.95.
Hence, any dips in wave 3 will be a buying opportunity.
major wave 3-ii termination point is also given in my nifty weekly chart at 4000 exactly on the supporting blue trendline.
major wave 3-ii termination point is also given in my nifty weekly chart at 4000 exactly on the supporting blue trendline.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
5th sep 2007
today i predicted nifty high(4502-03), low(near 4465) and close(4480(+-3)) perfectly on http://www.vfmdirect.com/ shoutbox as many times earlier too.
mkt is likely to consolidate further in coming days, 4400 is imp and should be held but if broken i see the support coming up at 4325.
futures trading lvls for 5th sep 2007
lanco infratech buy above 299 for t1 303 t2 308 s1 297 sl 290
reliance energy buy above 830 for t1 852 t2 861 sl 815
shipping corp buy above 196 for t1 203 t2 210 sl 186.
Monday, September 3, 2007
nifty negative divergences
sign of a big correction in the making?
negative divergence seen in nifty weekly charts both on macd and rsi indicators since april 2006.
negative divergence seen only on rsi on nifty monthly charts since may 2006. nifty weekly technicals
just have a look at the nifty weekly chart. red and pink lines are resistance lines and green and blue lines are acting as support lines. it is very clear that earlier, the shorting opportunities were available on break on downside from these lines and shorts covered on the strong blue support line at bottom(approx 4000) and nifty bounced on short covering and some buying there. now it is above the green line(approx 4230) and upmove is now resisted by the pink resistance line which comes in the region of 4525-4534 in the coming week. If the pink line is also taken off then the red line provides resistance above 4600. chartically, the support can be provided at/near 4300(not shown) and also by the green line. a nice short strangle strategy can be worked out here.
Friday, August 17, 2007
right now three levels are important 4209(100 dma), 4100(previous low and 50% ret of rise from 3554 to 4647) and 4065(200 dma).
if this is also broken then two levels to look out for are 4010 and 3972.
Lastly, the log scale multi year nifty trend line support is near 3860(which is also 38.2% ret of total rise from 2595.65 to 4647) for the august month. It should be noted that in march the nifty had bottomed out at 200 dma which was very near to 38.2% ret of the rise from 2595.65 to 4245.
if a pullback occurs, then chartical levels on upside are 4215,4245,4300,4330,4365 and 4376(13 dma).
4354 is the 38.2% ret of the total fall from 4647 to 4171.
the nifty closing above 4376 is good for upmove, a closing above 4465 for a couple of days might resume the fresh bull run.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
the technique used to determine bottom formation discussed yday was expected to complete and has 2-3 days of std deviation. But looks like US mkts are still falling and can have major impact on the downside going tomorrow. Here 4100 and 200 dma are vital supports, we are already trading below 100 dma. The target for Wolfe wave(discussed here earlier) and 200 dma are quite similar now and nifty can reach there in a single days fall. The subprime and its after effects alongwith yen unwinding is pulling liquidity from emerging markets.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Friday, August 10, 2007
short the following futures for today only
bharti below 862 sl 868 tgt 853
icicibank below 885 sl 890 tgt 875
nifty below 4353 sl 4366 tgt 4310/4256
tatasteel below 639 sl 644 tgt 630/617
unitech below 522 sl 526 tgt 517/509.
sbin below 1646 sl 1656 tgt 1623
arthikalyanji, i have given answer to ur queries, pls check ydays comments section.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
10th aug 2007
so my apprehension as given on 08th august posting below came true "subprime worries to continue, if this was the primary reason for mkts correction, then it would resume again after few days." and today high flying indian mkts came down due to bnp paribas europe hedge funds going bust news.
technically the reaction at 4530 was just near 161.8% ret level of recent fall and recent resistances and regarding wave todays high was about 70% of the total fall(in last years fall, the wave had retraced 70% and then continued downwards), todays close is just above support level of 4401.55 but since the bad news on sub-prime is continuing, we can expect 4367 followed by 4355 and 4340, any fall below 4323 it can test the previous low of 4267.
the rise was lacking conviction and was on short covering, the fall is on much higher volumes and shorts are back, so the outlook remains bearish going forward.
kalyanji, iam sorry as these were just ideas for today intraday and hope most of them performed well before mkt came down. i wanted to give levels for futures but since yesterday night there was bsnl net problem which got resolved just now. currently not giving any cash calls as mkt is in downtrend, will give positional ones when clear uptrend begins. thanks also panditji for ur appreciation.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
09th august 2007
4472-4505 area is important going forward for following reasons.
1)13dma,15dma,20dma lie in band 4471-4487
2)there are 61.8% retracements of 4647.95-4267.15 and 4624.30-4267.15
3)some previous resistances are in this range and the previous supporting trendline (now a resistance line) passes through this region.
in futures,
airdeccan,educomp,idfc,itc,ivrcl,cumminsind look good for short term buy.
08th august 2007
todays tgts for nifty 4406 and 4440.
support 4350.
IT stocks to rally on RBI ECB measure to check rupee appreciation.
some relief to mkt as fed keeps rates unchanged on expected lines.
subprime worries to continue, if this was the primary reason for mkts correction, then it would resume again after few days.
rnrl(fut) sl 45 tgt 48
punj lloyd(fut) sl 288 tgt 299/305
tcs(fut) sl 1090 tgt 1110/1120.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Monday, August 6, 2007
we have bounced near from a very significant level 4267 on chart. in addition, it should be noted that the retracement zone of rise 3554-4647 and 3617-4647 is also at 4230-4254 . 100 and 200 dma are far much below but we could not close above 50dma which is now at 4347.59. Tomorrow if mkt trades above this then it will face minor resistances at 4357 and 4370 and then major at 4404 and 4413. immediate downside supports at 4327 and 4305.
stock ideas with positive bias for tomorrow are india cements, kotakbank, ifci, nalco and sterlite optical.
Sunday, August 5, 2007
nifty long strangle would have worked very well in current market situation
1) date 26/07/2007:nifty bounced and closed 4619.80.
1 lot nifty 4700 strike call + 1 lot nifty 4600 strike put= Rs.9185
one day later heavy fall, total premium becomes Rs. 13507, a gain of Rs.4322 on strategy
2)market bounced on 31/07/2007 and closed at 4528.
1 lot nifty 4600 strike call + 1 lot nifty 4500 strike put premium= Rs.8962
next day mkt crashed heavily, total premium becomes Rs.14277, a gain of Rs.5315.
3)mkt bounced again on 03/08/2007 and closed at 4401.55.
1 lot of nifty 4500 strike call + 1 lot nifty 4400 strike put=Rs.9555.
if market falls on monday one can guess the outcome of this strategy.
If the mkt had risen instead of falling then also there would have been some gain on these strategies. These long strangles work very well in a volatile market.
All the premiums above are as per closing basis.
Saturday, August 4, 2007
nifty trading levels for monday:
upside:4404/4417/4428/4435/4440/4450
downside:4400/4394/4389/4378/4366/4355/4345/4340/4327/4300
market is in downswing as such, in case of a big gap down opening,
4345(50dma),4157(100dma),4038(200dma), as mentioned earlier 4230/4250 are 38.2% retracement levels of 3554/3617-4647 should act as supports.
one tgt i mentioned earlier 4057 i want to stick to that for present downfall.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
nearly half the turnover and half the short positions of yesterday carried today were short covered, since volumes were less and market came down toward the end, the pullback today seemed to be lacking conviction, even 4400 seemed to be too much to be overtaken. The nifty futures dicount has come down to 38 points. 50 dma support comes in at 4342. If global markets are firm tomorrow a strong opening above 4363 and then 4404 should be taken off followed by 4419. levels above 4419 are 4425/4440/4450, immediate supports 4339/4327/4300.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
02 august 2007
first lvl iam watching is 4338(50sma),4300(monthly support) then 4230-54(38.2%rets of rise from 3617-4647 and 4554-4647), then 4100.
if this correction is big enough, i have a target of 4057 for this in coming 4-5 days.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
31st july 2007
the low of this downswing i.e 4404 is axactly 23.6% ret of the upmove from 3617-4647.85.
the breakout above 4493 was significant and the short term uptrend has begun, but nifty could not reach 13sma which is at 4539. now coming to tomorrow, nifty is likely to encounter selling in zone 4550-60, so whether this is a fresh upmove or just a bounce of the original fall from 4647.85 will be confirmed on close above 4560. downside supports are at 4504,4496,4484.
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Market Next
Going forward weekly support at 4400. August monthly support at 4300.
The trendline support is now at 4430(intraday basis) and 4450(closing basis) for monday on the daily chart. If this is a regular profit booking it should have been over upto 4440 but if its deeper one it should last upto 4309. 4362 and 4325 are also significant levels. 4300-4309 should see some buying coming up if not if the crack continues then we would be staring at 4100. 4231 and 3972 are the retracement levels of the upmove from 3554 to 4650.
I would like to avoid giving cash call ideas at this point of time since market is in correction mode though ranbaxy and itc are looking good on charts.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
